tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11452220749473880212024-03-20T15:48:42.710-07:00Battleground270Political Reactions, Analyzations, and PredictionsDevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.comBlogger88125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-67713256274534776742019-12-09T13:45:00.001-08:002019-12-09T13:54:21.121-08:00Campaigning in a Crowded Primary<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="color: #0b5394; font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;">My Experiences as an Intern on Kamala Harris's Presidential Campaign</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 14.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Background</span></b><b style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 14.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">I
knew from the moment I watched Senator Kamala Harris grill Brett Kavanaugh in
his Senate Judiciary Committee hearing to become a Supreme Court Justice on
September 5<sup>th</sup>, 2018 that I wanted her to become our next president.
She delivered biting and probing questions as only a seasoned prosecutor can,
but moreover, she showed a seriousness and steadiness that has been lacking throughout
the current administration.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Four months later, Sen. Harris
announced that she would run for President. I was thrilled, but I also wanted
to give a fair shot to other candidates before I went all-in. By June 27<sup>th</sup>,
the night of the first Democratic debate, I had made up my mind; I would be
supporting Kamala. That was the night she famously eviscerated Vice President
Biden’s handling of issues of race, showing she has what it takes to go
toe-to-toe with Donald Trump in the general election. </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNo3POnzCz1WwJqH2d9_JQWTUrXqe7ciyxiRJE3FcLuiQ4wy5QqkvqNIKGuvKgUCwBddhFmUQw-lROf3NzXGry08ekESIuXxL7t6mYlzqo0cG6NCUObG2UGnVMUUK0Eob492F7jA78vbYt/s1600/Democrat-Debate-Night-Two-June-27-2019-Bernie-Sanders-Joe-Biden-Kamala-Harris-e1561687361875-620x435.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="435" data-original-width="620" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNo3POnzCz1WwJqH2d9_JQWTUrXqe7ciyxiRJE3FcLuiQ4wy5QqkvqNIKGuvKgUCwBddhFmUQw-lROf3NzXGry08ekESIuXxL7t6mYlzqo0cG6NCUObG2UGnVMUUK0Eob492F7jA78vbYt/s320/Democrat-Debate-Night-Two-June-27-2019-Bernie-Sanders-Joe-Biden-Kamala-Harris-e1561687361875-620x435.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">Two weeks later, I reached out to
the southwest Iowa regional organizing director, Jess Montgomery, inquiring
about a potential internship with the campaign. I knew that one of my two
remaining classes in my master’s program through the University of Nebraska
Omaha would be a political science internship, and the fall semester would be
the only time that I would have a full semester of not deploying. I also
recognized next-door Iowa’s clear and outsized importance in the nominating
process. The stars seemed to align.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 14.0pt;">The Grind</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">Campaigning
and organizing is not always fun work; in fact, it is often quite frustrating. The
immediate goal of any campaign should be identifying potential supporters as
well as those supporting other candidates. The two main tools our campaign used
to achieve this goal were the two most traditional ones: phonebanking and
canvassing. However, in the age of caller-ID, only a tiny fraction of potential
caucus-goers pick up the phone, and of the ones who do, even fewer would say
they were supporting or leaning towards supporting Sen. Harris. Canvassing, or
going door-to-door, typically had a much higher response rate, but again very
few people were ready or willing to commit to any one candidate, much less my
candidate. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Of the two methods, I much preferred
canvassing, even as the seasons changed from miserably hot to chillingly cold.
I enjoyed speaking with people face to face. Not only did I connect with more
people, but they were typically nicer and more willing to chat for extended
periods. One woman I met was most concerned with education, specifically if her
children would be able to get quality education when classroom size and teacher
pay dissuaded quality educators from joining or keeping that career. I told her
about Sen. Harris’s plan that would raise teacher pay across America by an
average of $13,000, and she was sold. Another man, whom I could not ultimately
convince to caucus for Kamala, chatted with me for nearly an hour about various
issues and his thoughts on the candidates. He was very wealthy, and after he
offered to hold a fundraising event for the Senator, I suspected he was holding
out his support for any candidate he could meet personally. </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_MQ75DH3ULkK9FiqgPpvQS9LpAlj6aTnJxAyvsNLd8_ZomERMQcbjJOXrRpKG73afCfmCAzJIUdcmi6yppjV0CInVfd0S3e7NiedZm5NMQov7iyOtoUlKRJiEZaXCuF7DSn1vIOOjDX-I/s1600/IMG_2018.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_MQ75DH3ULkK9FiqgPpvQS9LpAlj6aTnJxAyvsNLd8_ZomERMQcbjJOXrRpKG73afCfmCAzJIUdcmi6yppjV0CInVfd0S3e7NiedZm5NMQov7iyOtoUlKRJiEZaXCuF7DSn1vIOOjDX-I/s320/IMG_2018.jpeg" width="240" /></a></div>
<o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Of course, not all interactions were
quite as pleasant. Many people either yelled from inside their house “GO AWAY!”
or outright shut the door in my face after opening it. One woman shouted that
we live in America and I can’t tell her who to vote for, despite the fact that
I had only just introduced myself and not asked any questions. One of the final
interactions I had on the campaign was with a man who said “hell no” to Kamala
and declared “Trump 2020”. I thanked him for his time and turned to leave, but
he apparently wasn’t done; he wanted to regurgitate every Fox News talking
point he had heard over the past few weeks of impeachment hearings, in an
apparent effort to get under my skin. It didn’t work.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>For every potential voter who had an
opinion or preference, though, there were dozens who were undecided. This, I
believe, was undoubtedly a product of the historically large field of
candidates running in the crowded primary. Iowans are famously careful about
who they ultimately decide to caucus for – they do their research, they go to
local events to hear the candidates in person, and they ultimately make an
informed decision. But with two dozen candidates running for the nomination,
there is a lot to potentially like, and even more to research. Even today, only
two months out from the Iowa caucuses, only one-third of voters are strongly committed
to their first choice, even as the field has winnowed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Canvassing and phonebanking weren’t
my only roles in the campaign. I organized two debate watch parties, the first
at my house and the second at a bar in Omaha. I recruited college students at
both UNO and UNL, and even analyzed past precinct-level voter files to
determine the best precincts to target. By mid-October, I was made the Omaha
team captain, which mostly just consisted of organizing events for those in
Nebraska to attend. My biggest and most unique role in the campaign, however,
was creating a weekly newsletter sent to supporters and shared digitally via
Facebook and Twitter that highlighted various policies, favorable news
articles, and upcoming events. To my knowledge, the southwest Iowa region was
the only one that created a product like that.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The southwest Iowa regional office
was located in downtown Council Bluffs, which was beneficial for two reason –
one strategic and one personal. Pottawattamie County, home to Council Bluffs,
is by far the largest county by population in the region, meaning our staffers
and volunteers had nearby access to thousands of potential caucus-goers. For
myself, it was highly convenient that my commute to the office was only a 30
minute drive from my house. Typically, each week I would work at the office (or
canvass in Council Bluffs) on Tuesday and Thursday evenings, as well as either
Saturday or Sunday afternoons. Unfortunately, that schedule meant I would be
away from my family during times we normally spend together. To make matters
more difficult, my husband, Zach, was then left alone to have to watch and
raise our two children. While he’s no stranger to single-parent ops (I deploy
an average of 120 days/year), there were certainly times when I felt bad about
willingly choosing time campaigning over time with Zach and the twins.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>For as much as I worked and was away
from my family, however, the permanent staff on the campaign had it much worse.
The Harris campaign was the first to go to a 7-day work-week in early September,
usually working 10+ hour days. They moved from all over the country, leaving
their friends and family behind, to work for Sen. Harris’s campaign. Our
organizers included Rochelle Golliday, who had been an intern for First Lady
Michelle Obama and worked on Hillary Clinton’s Iowa campaign; Jake Fields, a
former staffer for Jacky Rosen’s 2018 Senate campaign; Leo McCaffrey, an organizer for Haley Stevens in Michigan in 2018; Rachel
Jordan, who worked on Governor Martin O’Malley’s campaign; Jonny Vannucci, who
interned at both the State Department and the UN; and Natalie Weiss, a local
activist from Lincoln, Nebraska. Each one of them was a pleasure to work and
spend time with, and I will forever value their friendships and our experiences
together.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 14.0pt;">The
Failures</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Senator Kamala Harris suspended her
campaign last week after months of declining poll numbers and a lack of
cash-on-hand to continue in a serious and honest way. Like many, the decision
to end her campaign left me in shock and with a wide array of emotions.
Strategically, I was dumbfounded as to why she would leave the contest when she
was consistently still polling in 5<sup>th</sup> place (albeit in the
mid-single digits) and was one of only seven candidates to have so-far
qualified for the December debate. I believed that a strong performance, like
that in the June debate, could have had the potential to jump-start her
candidacy, bring in more donations, and breathe new life into her stalled campaign.
Additionally, on some level I felt betrayed; I of course realize that there
will eventually only be one nominee and had been of the belief for some time
that it was very unlikely that she would ultimately be that nominee, but ending
her campaign before even the first vote was cast meant that all our hard work
over the past few months would see no tangible results, even if the results may
not have been favorable. </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2JDr5ELEBk0aQkcIQQcoe5Eph24Ny3Zxd5xoYiBaaDp_f_qgN-O06Mxrrh1NJniW_aOXBQuQUZS4HV8QNADH8yCJSJ-37FIbKlg6MHjDD7AZ8HkcItvbRUNqoqkBwVhyejz7ArVqxku35/s1600/lead_720_405.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="405" data-original-width="720" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2JDr5ELEBk0aQkcIQQcoe5Eph24Ny3Zxd5xoYiBaaDp_f_qgN-O06Mxrrh1NJniW_aOXBQuQUZS4HV8QNADH8yCJSJ-37FIbKlg6MHjDD7AZ8HkcItvbRUNqoqkBwVhyejz7ArVqxku35/s640/lead_720_405.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>At the same time, as I said, it was
becoming increasingly clear that Kamala would not perform well in Iowa, and
staying in the race would only pull support and attention from candidates more
likely to win or do well. The political scientist and pragmatist in me knows
that a greatly protracted primary campaign will likely only help one person: Donald
Trump. By that measure, her exit now leaves her supporters able to shop around
for other candidates, potentially helping the eventual nominee’s victory be more
decisive.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>A lot has been written about the
failure of Sen. Harris’s campaign, and I’m sure even more is yet to come. She
was often referred to as the ‘female Obama’, and her campaign announcement in
January drew 20,000+ people, the largest crowd for any candidate up until
October. At points during these early months, she was considered one of the
frontrunners. How did she end up with no money and very little support two
months before the Iowa caucuses?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Broadly speaking, one of the biggest
contributing factors was her lack of a clear message, or reason for why it
should be her over another candidate. The candidates who win nominations always
have a simple theme to their campaign. Barack Obama offered a vision of a
post-partisan (and implicitly a post-racial) America; Bernie Sanders champions
a political revolution; Joe Biden sells a return-to-normal; Elizabeth Warren
has built a brand on fighting for the middle class and ending corruption in
Washington, etc. A clear message, especially in a crowded primary, is essential
– it helps to differentiate one candidate from another, specifically when their
policy positions are largely the same.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Another huge factor was what Kamala
described as ‘the donkey in the room’ – the issue of electability. After the
2016 election in which Trump surprised almost everyone by winning three
Midwestern states that gave him the win in the Electoral College, the media and
Democratic elites began putting a heavy emphasis on Democratic candidates
needing to win back the white, working-class men who swung to Trump. This
narrative has ignored the fact that minority (especially black) turnout was
down dramatically from 2012, undoubtedly due to a black man no longer being on
the ballot as well as specific and targeted attempts by Russia to suppress the
black vote. Additionally, it is often forgotten that Democrats had an extremely
flawed candidate in 2016. Still, elites messaging enforced the idea that only a
white candidate, probably male, can win against Donald Trump, and that
perception is perhaps best exhibited when observing that the four most-likely
nominees are all white, and 3 are male. Moreover, so far, not a single person
of color has met the polling threshold to qualify for the December debate.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Structurally, the early-state
nominating order of the Democratic primary, in which two disproportionally
white and rural states (Iowa and New Hampshire) hold the first two nominating
contests, likely compounded Sen. Harris’s perceived electability problem. That
is not to say that voters in those two states are racist - after all, Iowa
launched Barack Obama to the Presidency - but I believe it is fair to say that
if South Carolina or another heavily diverse state were to hold the first
contest, Kamala would have been given a longer look by voters and would also
have been mentioned more by the media as a prohibitive frontrunner.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>As always, the media played a role
in the demise of Sen. Harris’s campaign. Part of the issue is that beginning in
August, after a fine but lackluster debate performance, the media simply
stopped talking about Kamala Harris, at least relative to the three leading
contenders at the time, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders. By
that point in time, her position in the polls had fallen from 15% in early July
to about half that. The candidate on the rise both in Iowa and nationally was
Elizabeth Warren, and the media seemed to favor the ‘comeback-kid’ story of
Warren. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4USjeIhhFpt2h8I2vXTo_eOWBjJa-Zq6ZqvAtC8q7WzQnBI5VkP9UpMR9nJHhBH4SeLW7clJMwgSNwutdFdAbKBpRTXhLcy1VUvo94NmU1UjccmUGoiWAVsLp4giV6Q8TeaBcTUwY0pMC/s1600/IMG_0086.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1393" data-original-width="1600" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4USjeIhhFpt2h8I2vXTo_eOWBjJa-Zq6ZqvAtC8q7WzQnBI5VkP9UpMR9nJHhBH4SeLW7clJMwgSNwutdFdAbKBpRTXhLcy1VUvo94NmU1UjccmUGoiWAVsLp4giV6Q8TeaBcTUwY0pMC/s320/IMG_0086.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">Yet, the adage “all press is good
press” is also not true, at least in this case. Sen. Harris’s campaign was
subject to a great deal of negative coverage, much of it earned - most notable
was her seeming flip-flop positions on Medicare-for-All. She had co-sponsored
Sen. Sanders’s “damn bill”, yet by July, after hearing from voters across the
country, Kamala said, she moderated by proposing a plan that would offer
Medicare for anyone who wanted it but would also allow private insurance
companies to still offer plans for a transitionary period of 10 years, though
they would be subject to stricter regulation. The media, as well as the other
candidates, who perhaps saw her as a threat, latched onto this turnabout by
Harris, which just fed into the perception that she didn’t have an ideological
core that informed her policy stances. For me, it reinforced my belief that she
would be an excellent leader, because she has the ability to think
pragmatically and change her mind when she’s presented with data and confronted
with voters’ worries. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Still, that perceived flip-flop was
a moment in the campaign from which she could never recover. By October and
through the end of November, just days before she formally closed shop, there
were frequent stories about infighting in the campaign, mostly at the top. For
my part, I never personally witnessed any kind of staff conflict in our region,
but I was told that it happened, and it, along with the polls and negative
headlines, created a sometimes-tense environment in which morale was low.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Lessons
Learned and Going Forward</span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I learned a lot through this
internship. I learned campaigning is tough work. It is seldom rewarding – I
didn’t get my first ‘Commit to Caucus’ (C2C) from a voter until October. The
hours, especially for paid staffers, are long, and the work is tedious. It
mostly consists of making phone calls or knocking on doors all day. It puts a
strain on families and on relationships. But the people who invest their time
and energy into these campaigns are heroes to the idea of democracy. They are
fighting not just on behalf of their preferred candidate, but in a
representation of their own beliefs and values. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I also learned how to best convince
an undecided voter, at least in the Midwest. In the beginning, when canvassing,
I would accept an answer of “I’m undecided” without further question or
prodding. Perhaps as a result of how I was raised, I’m not keen on pressing a
point or be seen as pushy. Rather, it is truer to my personality to accept
opinions at face value and thank them for their time. This is clearly not a
technique that lends itself well to campaigning. Gradually, as I became an
effective subject matter expert on Sen. Harris and her positions, I found I was
much more successful when I followed up by asking, “what issues matter most to
you?” Then, I would be able to easily explain how Kamala would address that
specific issue, and if asked, would contrast that with other candidates’
positions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">One thing I never changed about my
approach is that I never spoke negatively of another candidate when interacting
with voters, and I’m proud of that. Sure, there are a couple candidates in the
field whom I dislike and disagree with on occasion, but negativity feeds hate,
and hate is a path towards the dark side, as well as four more years of Donald
Trump. The Democratic party and those fighting for its candidates must show
Americans a different path and vision. It is not enough to simply replace the
occupant of the oval office; whomever wins must go on to try to unite all
Americans under a common purpose. Division, fear, and hate will never
accomplish that. <o:p></o:p></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK0xXrZnWCX4jWT0lUSvq_Ip-ocaQZhnCgOjw9FwzaBzOrSLSF96Qb7iguiaTA2AsQh_YmMGwS5OR4o0SYAG5X22TIhnFQEWj07wQk4s5jvBYSI_xmquSOM4SMXHn2yAWGLy5JZ9GuWSov/s1600/IMG_1955.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center; text-indent: 0.5in;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1419" data-original-width="1600" height="567" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK0xXrZnWCX4jWT0lUSvq_Ip-ocaQZhnCgOjw9FwzaBzOrSLSF96Qb7iguiaTA2AsQh_YmMGwS5OR4o0SYAG5X22TIhnFQEWj07wQk4s5jvBYSI_xmquSOM4SMXHn2yAWGLy5JZ9GuWSov/s640/IMG_1955.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">Going forward, I’m not going to let my
candidates’ loss paralyze me or prevent me from staying in the fight. I’ve told
myself that I will give myself a week or so to ‘grieve’, and then I will begin
researching in earnest who most deserves my support. I clearly haven’t yet
decided who that will be, and I look forward to hearing from my friends as well
as organizers for other campaigns on why I should support their candidate. When
I settle on a candidate, and especially when we have a nominee, I’m going to
use what I learned to fight like hell for that person, and I couldn’t be more
excited.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-84129309349710709772018-08-30T12:49:00.000-07:002018-08-30T12:49:50.313-07:00No, Democrats Will Likely NOT Win the Senate This Year
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Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<!--StartFragment-->
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Donald Trump’s Presidency has offered the Democrats a rare
chance – and one they haven’t had in years – to take back the House in 2018.
Nate Silver’s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a> is currently projecting that Democrats have about
a 73% likelihood (or about a 5 in 7 chance) that Democrats will win back the
House in November. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
However, the picture isn’t so rosy for Democrats in the
Senate. Due to a daunting map this year in which Democrats are defending ten
seats in states Trump won in 2016 (and Republicans are only defending one such
seat Clinton won - Nevada), it is very likely that Democrats will have fewer Senators in
their caucus in 2019 than presently. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The below graph shows my current projection for the number
of seats Democrats will hold after the 2018 midterms. In order to have a
majority in the Senate, they must have 51 seats, as Vice President Mike Pence
would be the tie-breaker should the chamber have a 50/50 split. That leaves the
Democrats with only about a 5% likelihood of winning the Senate, even in what
is looking like a gangbuster year for the party nationwide. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitocE9e8kRIPkXkxkuqvH5ukY-drRMiq1FH-goo7532GYNix0d2bUz1cLZwC7hTN9NBHDMAklqmzuHLN_TBI7on-CyIviW6xNqN_UEZTXJhaVCENwKdoDZT-dCMITByFYMsQwW1wM33QzU/s1600/Senate29Aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="435" data-original-width="848" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitocE9e8kRIPkXkxkuqvH5ukY-drRMiq1FH-goo7532GYNix0d2bUz1cLZwC7hTN9NBHDMAklqmzuHLN_TBI7on-CyIviW6xNqN_UEZTXJhaVCENwKdoDZT-dCMITByFYMsQwW1wM33QzU/s640/Senate29Aug.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaGueG4pN2R4Y9xz5-n1QgCOFKRmLCYwX8xYs2oUCXyeNfdaBnYA8goOY2HIhRER3XPYctDMAQh7lSZKqFda0aY9un6_tgV7d5eYpBUZvF69AtXBlYY5lnwrIoVAiPhupk-qP-2yw5XzsL/s1600/Picture1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="57" data-original-width="847" height="42" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaGueG4pN2R4Y9xz5-n1QgCOFKRmLCYwX8xYs2oUCXyeNfdaBnYA8goOY2HIhRER3XPYctDMAQh7lSZKqFda0aY9un6_tgV7d5eYpBUZvF69AtXBlYY5lnwrIoVAiPhupk-qP-2yw5XzsL/s640/Picture1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
In the 10 democratic states Donald Trump won in 2016, four
are considered “Toss-ups” (Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota), two
are “Leaning Democratic” (Montana and West Virginia), one is “Likely Democratic”
(Wisconsin), and three are “Safe Democratic” (Michigan, Ohio, and
Pennsylvania). Of the seats Republicans are defending, only three are rated as “Toss-ups”
(Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee), and one is rated as “Likely Republican”
(Texas). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
To gain the majority, Democrats will need to net two seats,
which means they could conceivably win all three Republican-held toss-ups and
only lose one of their own, or they would have to keep all of their own seats
while still picking up two Republican-held seats. Either of those scenarios is
unlikely, given the heavily-Republican margins the states in the Democratic toss-ups.
Trump won both Indiana and Missouri by 19 points and North Dakota by 36 points.
And while he only won Florida by about 1%, the current multi-millionaire and
self-financing Republican Governor Rick Scott is running against Senator
Nelson. In order to compete against all that cash from Scott, Democrats will
have to invest heavily into the race, which will take away from their efforts
in other states. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
As a side note, all projections are based on a combination
of factors, mainly current polling, but also historic trends, cash on hand, and
the current national environment. Nationwide, the generic congressional ballot
polling suggests Democrats will win the popular vote by 7-8%, which would very
likely mean they’d easily win the House. However, Senate Democrats fighting in
the numerous red states won’t enjoy that same margin. As it currently stands,
Republicans will likely hold between 51 and 53 seats in the upper chamber by
January. In order for the Democrats to have a better shot of winning the
Senate, they will need to move some of the toss-up races into the ‘lean
Democratic’ column. I’ll be sure to update the Senate forecast as the election
grows nearer.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment--><div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-43221545973315720572016-11-06T21:44:00.000-08:002016-11-07T12:59:17.072-08:00Trump v. Clinton - The Official Election Projection<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span class="s1"><span class="" style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="">It's finally over. Well, almost. In fewer than 36 hours, we will likely know the winner of the 2016 Presidential election. Barring some wild, unforeseen circumstance, Hillary Clinton will likely emerge as the President-Elect and the first woman to become Commander -in-Chief. It will not be the blowout that it would have been had the election been held two weeks ago. At that point, Secretary Clinton had a six or seven point lead and was tied or even leading in some states that are now leaning towards Trump such as Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio. </span></span></span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpgc62zlHT0vrnYjptExNi5fY2xC6EJxXR8QyJE8KTEyUDfBWCPWZc5gKfK60ZL5pAqoPs8-Eipbr_6OZy6fWYjDM8fza-pPiyXL5pf7VdmRaiWdCtZujBNMbr0HOZpQSxE2wkNAvU2iv-/s1600/Screen+Shot+2016-11-07+at+1.01.19+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="56" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpgc62zlHT0vrnYjptExNi5fY2xC6EJxXR8QyJE8KTEyUDfBWCPWZc5gKfK60ZL5pAqoPs8-Eipbr_6OZy6fWYjDM8fza-pPiyXL5pf7VdmRaiWdCtZujBNMbr0HOZpQSxE2wkNAvU2iv-/s640/Screen+Shot+2016-11-07+at+1.01.19+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: justify;">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">The headline, of course, is that Clinton will win, but she will likely do so without a majority of the popular vote. It's possible, of course, that Secretary Clinton could over perform via her massive get-out-the-vote operation and inch just above 50%, but it's more probable that no candidate will reach that magic number, largely due to the presence of multiple third party candidates running this year. </span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span class="s1"><span class="goog-text-highlight" style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class=""><span class="">Of course, Presidential elections are not won or lost, necessarily, in the popular vote. So is Mrs. Clinton's popular vote lead secure enough to win 270 electoral votes? In short, yes. The map below shows Battleground270's 50-state electoral projection. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span class="s1"><span class="goog-text-highlight" style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class=""><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-dMNl0Q94Iv3XP31_b3Gxs25jSWH2oCcaAlmA1VmfEwfAJquNfW5pxHGq3Ou2npJnTecdBKmkQhqTQdHnqkpQBfNT43tiPGZ6_GjmOF_WdmRH5QHgSL8OSHM4JyuFP0d-ehvo3mV1M5f2/s1600/Screen+Shot+2016-11-07+at+1.26.32+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-dMNl0Q94Iv3XP31_b3Gxs25jSWH2oCcaAlmA1VmfEwfAJquNfW5pxHGq3Ou2npJnTecdBKmkQhqTQdHnqkpQBfNT43tiPGZ6_GjmOF_WdmRH5QHgSL8OSHM4JyuFP0d-ehvo3mV1M5f2/s640/Screen+Shot+2016-11-07+at+1.26.32+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span class="s1"><span class="goog-text-highlight" style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class=""><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span class="s1"><span class="goog-text-highlight" style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">This map is good for 322 electoral votes for Secretary Clinton, which is 52 more than she needs to win. Therefore, she could lose three of the four next closest states in her column (North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, and New Hampshire), and still come away with the win. Speaking of the individual states, let's take a look at which states we project Clinton to win on Tuesday.</span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span class="s1"><span class="" style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">The closest state (for either candidate) will probably be North Carolina. The Tar Heel State will represent the only Romney state to go for Clinton, but that should not be terribly surprising, as it's electorate has gotten more racially diverse and more highly educated, even in just the past four years. Mitt Romney won North Carolina by about 2% in 2012, but it'll go to Clinton with Trump at the top of the GOP ballot.</span></span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCQQGFvibvlEb19SwUt81s4EUTdzNLs9txmCMexl8k8vVCLAY-qcIpDKxMAwkVwSfjDMrGhFEj2ChxoTwgP9-9CLc0FWcB6NRXyrm_KWq5vcl1pG6f766moAO63PRC_DuHaBaDjwYkttxr/s1600/Screen+Shot+2016-11-07+at+1.02.01+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCQQGFvibvlEb19SwUt81s4EUTdzNLs9txmCMexl8k8vVCLAY-qcIpDKxMAwkVwSfjDMrGhFEj2ChxoTwgP9-9CLc0FWcB6NRXyrm_KWq5vcl1pG6f766moAO63PRC_DuHaBaDjwYkttxr/s400/Screen+Shot+2016-11-07+at+1.02.01+PM.png" width="363" /></a></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="">Florida will also be a relatively close state, though it will not be the closest state, as it was in 2012. Current polls show a dead heat in Florida. Therefore, Clinton's historic ground game (and Trump's complete lack of one) is going to make all the difference. </span></span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span class="s1"><span class="" style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="">Both Nevada and New Hampshire are two states that have tightened a bit in the past couple weeks, and recent polls show both of them as ties. In Nevada, polls are almost always off in the state, and early voting numbers have shown that it will be nearly impossible for Trump to catch up on election day, as greater than 70% of the vote will have already been cast by Monday night. New Hampshire does not allow early voting, but it is a highly elastic state, meaning that it swings as the overall popular vote does. With Clinton's polls rebounding in recent days, it's probable that her lead in New Hampshire will do the same. </span></span></span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">The remaining blue states make up Clinton's so-called firewall, or "blue wall", as some commentators have dubbed it. While there's a lot of talk of Donald Trump picking off the rustbelt states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or even Minnesota , that's not likely to happen. He has not led in a single credible poll in any of those states since his convention. Some of those he has never led in. They will safely go to Hillary Clinton.</span></span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span class="s1"><span class="" style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="">Moving on to the 'Trump states', we'll start with Ohio. Yes, it's looking as if Trump may just win Ohio, though it will be by less than 1% (just like North Carolina for Mrs. Clinton). While some people like to equate Ohio and Pennsylvania, Ohio has a very different electorate. Racially, they are basically identical, with the electorate being 84% white. However, Ohio has more evangelical Christians, fewer registered Democrats, and more voters without a college degree. Further, Ohio is one of the states that has been hardest hit by trade deals such as NAFTA. Polls currently show Trump with a 2-3% lead, but we're projecting Clinton's massive ground game to make up about half of that deficit.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghr0IfpZ5WcKdroGGI5Xoc8MaGLJ3vVsydJ0D8Z4qMXh11LlTavdcVF8YfgYMZ5HLcOA9jLlW1kCDjYjuaakwblEokII8UN_zZ7tT3jH7vta9xQF4P6NnIBt6XJSC-v2BfNtSyQpCexrNU/s1600/Screen+Shot+2016-11-07+at+1.01.44+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghr0IfpZ5WcKdroGGI5Xoc8MaGLJ3vVsydJ0D8Z4qMXh11LlTavdcVF8YfgYMZ5HLcOA9jLlW1kCDjYjuaakwblEokII8UN_zZ7tT3jH7vta9xQF4P6NnIBt6XJSC-v2BfNtSyQpCexrNU/s400/Screen+Shot+2016-11-07+at+1.01.44+PM.png" width="362" /></a></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Arizona is a state that Secretary Clinton likely would have won if the election was two weeks ago. Polls then had her either tied or up by a couple points over Donald Trump. However, she's since lost that lead, and even massive latino turnout is unlikely to put Arizona in the 'win' column for Mrs. Clinton. </span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: justify;">
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">The state that represents the largest electoral shift from 2012 is Iowa. President Obama won Iowa then by about 6%, but Trump will likely win it this year by about 3%, representing a 9% swing. Iowa's electorate is tailor-made for Trump : heavily white, working class voters without a college degree. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span class="" style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="">Like Arizona, Georgia was trending in Hillary Clinton's direction before the Comey letter was sent to Congress 10 days ago. While it was not likely she would win it at that point, Clinton could have finished within a point or two of Mr. Trump. Now , however, it's out of reach for her campaign. </span></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span class="" style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">The final state we'll discuss is Alaska. Some may be surprised that it is this far down on Trump's list, and it's very possible that Donald Trump will win the state by double digits. Polling in Alaska is historically unreliable, but the polling we do have shows Trump with a lead somewhere between three and eight points. The 'X-factor' is Gary Johnson. Alaska is a very libertarian-esque state, and Gov. Johnson has hit double digits in some polls. If he gets upwards of 15% of the vote on election day, Clinton could squeak out a win. If he's under 10%, Trump will win.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="">You may be wondering how I've come up with these projections; .. In short, I use a mix of data and subjective analysis The polls almost certainly will not be 100% correct In most polls, close to 10% of voters remain undecided . It could be that those voters stay home on election day, or they may all vote for one candidate. I've tried to use historic and short-term trends as well as demographic make-ups and voting patterns in order to accurately predict where I think each state will end up. After all, in 2012, I called all states but Florida correctly, and that one was only off by less that 1%. I'm excited to see how close it'll be this time.</span></span></span></div>
Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-52882162625878514232016-05-07T11:28:00.000-07:002016-05-08T12:35:26.033-07:00Who’s the Real Winner of the 2016 Election? President Barack Obama<div class="p1" style="text-align: justify;">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It is worth remembering that President Reagan was not always held in such high esteem by the American public, or even by his own party. Even at a time when America was much less polarized, Reagan’s approval rating was often below 50% and even dipped below 40% for a short period. Then, in his final year of office, the American public began to give the President higher marks, and Reagan ended his second term with over 60% of Americans approving as his job as President, about 10% higher than President H. W. Bush’s approval during his first days in office. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">2016 is shaping up to look a lot like 1988. President Obama’s approval rating has gradually increased since the campaign seriously got underway. In November, only 42.9% of Americans approved of the President’s handling of his job, and his net approval was -8.7%. Now, his job approval stands at about 49%, with his net favorability at +2.5%. For reference, at this point in Reagan’s Presidency, Reagan was also at 49%. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So what accounts for the rise in Obama’s popularity over the past six months? Two things: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. While Hillary Clinton has always been seen as the likely Democratic nominee, the same cannot be said for Mr. Trump. In November of 2015, few expected Donald Trump to wind up becoming the Republican nominee for President. Most political pros and pundits expected him to get no more than 25-30% of the vote and for one of the more mainstream Republican candidates to end up consolidating support against him. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">However, as Americans have become more and more accustomed to believing Trump will in fact be the nominee, their approval for the President has spiked. True, correlation should never be confused for causation, but there is little evidence that anything else can account for Obama’s current bounce in the polls. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Besides Trump and Clinton’s overall unfavorability with the public, there are two main things that have probably helped Obama’s image among his fellow Americans. First, instead of running away from the President’s legacy, as Al Gore and John McCain did in 2000 and 2008, both Secretary Clinton and Senator Sanders have largely embraced the President. This is likely due to the fact that the President is enormously popular with the Democratic base, i.e. those who actually turn out in primary elections. A Gallop poll conducted in March of this year showed that 82% of Democrats approved of his job as President. Further, those who identified as ‘liberal Democrats’ gave the President a 89% approval rating. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In debate after debate, the two Democratic rivals have attempted to court these voters by praising the President as well as his many accomplishments. Even as Bernie Sanders has sought to run to the left of both Clinton and Obama, he has still only offered mild criticism of the President, usually followed up with a line about how Obama has done as much as he could given the Republican opposition to him.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The second thing that has helped the President is the messy Republican primary. For the first few months of the primary, the GOP candidates were attacking the President and his policies non-stop. However, as the primary got closer to the first voting states, Republicans (most notably Donald Trump) have resorted to attacking each other while ignoring the sitting Democratic President. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Now, it is apparent to the voters that they will have a choice in November between two candidates with record breaking favorability numbers and who are both less popular than President Obama. Trump’s favorability rating stands at about 36% and Clinton’s is only marginally better at 42.5%. Their unfavorability ratings are 60% and 54%, respectively. Never before have the two nominees for President been so universally disliked.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">With a likely extremely negative campaign looming and eight more months of Obama’s Presidency, the American public just may be wishing that they could instead vote for him for a third term. This is a recipe for President Obama’s popularity to continue to rise, just as Ronald Reagan’s did in 1988. </span></span></div>
Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-44562517373228019352016-04-11T01:05:00.001-07:002016-04-11T01:05:21.729-07:00Despite Recent Wins, Bernie Still Not Winning<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That headline may not make a whole lot of sense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or maybe you think I mean that Bernie is
still behind in the pledged delegate count (which he is), and that is why he’s
not winning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Right, but wrong.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bernie Sanders is still not winning by the margins he needs
in order to overtake Hillary Clinton’s pledged delegate lead, which as of April
1<sup>st</sup> was about 222 delegates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>After winning both Wisconsin and Wyoming since then, Clinton’s lead has
only shrunk by 10 delegates to 212.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Why is this a problem? Wisconsin and Wyoming are among the
final few states that are extremely favorable to Sanders.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The majority of the rest of the states are
either those in which Clinton has sizable leads or is likely roughly tied with
Bernie.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That won’t do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I’m sure you’ve heard this number quite a bit
recently. Fifty-seven percent. It is the average amount of the popular vote
Bernie Sanders must win in the remaining contests in order to overtake Hillary
Clinton in pledged delegates by the convention.
Actually, the number was 56.6% until Bernie underperformed his targets
in Wisconsin and Wyoming this past week.
Even after winning those two states, he’s actually in a worse
position, mathematically speaking, than he was prior to the contests. The chart below illustrates Bernie’s current
predicament:</span></span><!--EndFragment-->
</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhD71kBsZRxdg3wtVMCHh8fLHkTuu4nJWAxRZ8HZMzpt8b5xQyDl8ST2wT-ncJnm4-nW7sD-kG74VIAY8TEU3AKoaP1oOCdShp5wWP3mSVftlhE0dMz-LmGlwFx5epwm0Qlq9GR-wJoBU-Q/s1600/sanders_path.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="359" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhD71kBsZRxdg3wtVMCHh8fLHkTuu4nJWAxRZ8HZMzpt8b5xQyDl8ST2wT-ncJnm4-nW7sD-kG74VIAY8TEU3AKoaP1oOCdShp5wWP3mSVftlhE0dMz-LmGlwFx5epwm0Qlq9GR-wJoBU-Q/s640/sanders_path.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">You see, Sanders was expected to win both Wisconsin and
Wyoming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Demographically and
geographically, those states were among those that should have been extremely
favorable to him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And to an extent, they
were.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sanders still won both
states.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But he didn’t win them by the
margin that he needed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The chart above divides the total delegates remaining into
amounts that Sanders must shoot for in each state in order to overtake
Clinton.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In Wisconsin, Bernie’s target
was 53 delegates, or approximately 62% of the popular vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, he only won 48 delegates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Same story in Wyoming; Sanders won 4 fewer
delegates there than he needed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To complicate matters even further for the Sanders campaign,
he is behind his popular vote targets, in many cases by double digits, in
nearly all of the remaining states.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Does
that mean he cannot catch up?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No, there
is technically still time; in the same way that there is technically still time
for President Obama to repeal Citizens United, enact sweeping immigration
reform, pass strict new gun laws, and obliterate ISIS completely before he
leaves office.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you want to know whether Sanders has a real shot at
winning the nomination and not just an over-hyped hope, look to New York on
April 19<sup>th</sup>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not only must
Bernie win here, he must win by nothing short of double digits.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He is currently averaging about 40% in recent
polls, so a current prediction of him getting 43% in the primary is not
unreasonable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If Sanders can win with over 55% of the vote in Clinton’s
home state, then yes, he will have a real shot at winning the nomination.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If he loses New York, however, he’s toast,
and anyone telling you anything different is either just blowing hot air or is
delusional.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-86802217058965918352016-01-31T14:50:00.000-08:002016-01-31T14:50:09.802-08:00How Ted Cruz Wins the GOP Nomination<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Senator Cruz’s path to the Republican nomination is looking
smaller and smaller as we speed toward the first votes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When I wrote about <a href="http://battleground270.blogspot.com/2016/01/how-donald-trump-wins-gop-nomination.html" target="_blank">how Trump could win the nomination</a>, Cruz was leading nearly all the polls in Iowa and beginning to slowly
climb in New Hampshire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, a lot
has changed since then.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First and foremost, Trump recognized the threat Cruz
represented and moved to halt his momentum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>According to the most recent polls, Trump is now projected to win Iowa,
a result that would surely diminish Ted Cruz’s chances of being the Republican
nominee.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So how does Senator Cruz win?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His chances hinge on Iowa.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Ted Cruz pretty much must win Iowa in order to go on to win the
nomination.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A close second probably
won’t do unless no other candidate comes close; then, it will likely be seen as
a two-man race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Turnout among evangelical voters and new voters is essential
for Cruz.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He needs the former to come
out in droves and the latter to stay home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Furthermore, Cruz needs to hope that supporters of other candidates that
share his social conservative support will instead decide to caucus for
him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These candidates include Rick
Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Ben Carson.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Collectively, those three candidates make up about 12.4% of the polling
average in Iowa.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they consolidated
around Cruz, he would win in a landslide.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After winning Iowa, Cruz will need to grow his support in
New Hampshire to collect at least 20% of the vote there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It may not be enough to win, but it would
likely be enough to create a story that he is gaining momentum and has
relatively strong support, even in a more moderate and secular state such as
New Hampshire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From there, the voting will turn to South Carolina, where
Trump is currently leading the field and where Sen. Cruz is in second.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Trump’s standing would likely diminish after
losing in Iowa, and Cruz should hope that his chief social conservative rivals
drop out by this point.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Carson,
Huckabee, and Santorum make up about 11% of South Carolina’s polling
average.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the majority of those voters
moved to Cruz, he will have a strong shot of winning the state, particularly if
no establishment candidate can claim victory in New Hampshire. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Victories in Iowa and South Carolina, along with a split
decision in New Hampshire will fuel Cruz for the later states.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ted Cruz will be strongly positioned for wins
in the so-called “SEC primary” on March first.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>These primaries include those in many southern states such as Alabama,
Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia, and Cruz’s home state,
Texas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Importantly, all but one of these states (Virginia) has a
threshold a candidate must reach in order to win delegates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In some the threshold is 15% and others it is
20%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This means that a candidate like
Ben Carson or even Marco Rubio could receive zero delegates if they cannot
reach the threshold.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is good news
for Cruz (and Trump) who are the only two candidates currently breaking those
thresholds.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Like with the scenario for a Trump win, the nomination will
likely be a long and drawn out process, possibly leading all the way to the GOP
convention.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Cruz would need to rack up a majority of the
delegates by the SEC primary in order to show that he has the momentum and
claim the title of eventual nominee.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His problem, however, is that he is just as despised among
the Republican establishment as Donald Trump.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Therefore, it is unlikely that all of the establishment candidates such
as Rubio or Bush will drop out of the race anytime soon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In order for Cruz to win the nomination, he
will need to rack up his delegate count in the more conservative southern
states and the ‘bible-belt’ and either hope that breaks 50% or receive a clear
plurality by the convention.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As I mentioned at the outset, Cruz’s chances have diminished
since two weeks ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While he still has
plenty of money and time, he is faced with the possibility that several
candidates will not drop out soon after the first couple primaries, and the nomination
will therefore take months to lock up.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-58038339398108927392016-01-09T16:35:00.002-08:002016-01-09T16:35:41.827-08:00How Donald Trump Wins the GOP Nomination<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you had told me twelve, six, or even three months ago
that with only three weeks left until the Iowa caucuses Donald Trump would be
leading the Republican pack for the nomination, I would have laughed in your face
(and then cried in the fetal position while holding my dogs and telling them
that it will be ok). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But lo and behold, that scenario has played out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the RealClearPolitics poll of polls,
Trump holds a commanding 13.3% lead over his nearest rival (Sen. Ted Cruz)
nationally.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Furthermore, Trump is
fairing well in the early states.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In New
Hampshire, the Donald is beating a divided establishment field by 16%+; in
South Carolina, he leads Cruz by double digits; and even in Iowa, Trump is only
four points behind the leader, Ted Cruz.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If he were any other candidate in any other year, his case
for the nomination would be open and shut.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Politicos such as myself wouldn’t be forecasting his eventual
downfall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it isn’t just any other
year, so how does Donald Trump win?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Beginning with the first voting state, Donald Trump needs to
make sure that those who say they are supporting him in the polls actually come
out to vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If Trump loses by a larger
than expected margin (which currently would be about 4-8%), he will have to
give a good reason why he himself shouldn’t be branded a “loser”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is important, because one of Trump’s
strengths is his ability to project confidence in his winning ability and his
perceived frontrunner status.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If that is
challenged, Trump will go into New Hampshire wounded, and he likely won’t
perform as well as his current standing would project.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To be clear, Trump doesn’t need to win Iowa.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is already a perception in the
political world that Iowa is Cruz’s to lose.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Winning Iowa would certainly cement Trump’s lead in other states, but
losing by a few points to the perceived frontrunner would not necessarily harm
him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Additionally, Donald Trump needs to ensure that an
establishment candidate such as Marco Rubio does not break out and do
unexpectedly well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If Rubio comes close
to matching Trump’s support in the state, he will be the story going into New
Hampshire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is why Rubio is now making
a big play for Iowa.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Next up: New Hampshire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Currently, there are four establishment candidates (Jeb Bush, Chris
Christie, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich) vying for a ticket out of The Granite
State, and because they all are pulling roughly equal support in the polls,
none of them are able to break out to seriously challenge Trump.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Donald Trump has proven very effective at diminishing a
candidate by attacking them when he needs to, so he needs to make sure that he
attacks the “most likely” establishment the hardest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>New Hampshire is a state in which Trump needs
to win.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He can do this by turning out
his supporters as well as doing moderately well in Iowa.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Following New Hampshire are both South Carolina and
Nevada.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First and foremost, for Trump to
continue winning states, candidates who are not winning need to stay in the race.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, should Kasich and Christie not
do well in New Hampshire, they could get out of the race, and their supporters
would then flock to another candidate who is a close ideological fit, such as
Bush and Rubio.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Donald Trump needs to
hope those candidates stay in the race a little longer in order for those
campaigns to not gain momentum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As I
mentioned above, Trump is doing well in South Carolina and Nevada, so he just
needs to continue winning, even if it is only with about 30-35% of the vote.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Beyond the early voting states, Donald Trump begins to have
a problem.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While he would still be the
perceived frontrunner for the nomination, candidates will begin dropping out
and consolidating behind either Cruz or a more establishment candidate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At this point, Trump will need to begin
spending a lot of money to hit Ted Cruz as well as the establishment
candidate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Because most states have a proportional delegate allocation
system, he will need to begin winning states with 50% of the vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Doing so will mean he wins all the delegates
(save for one delegate each for a candidate who can cross a certain
threshold.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, chances are that Donald Trump will not be able to
win a majority in most states.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Therefore, the nomination will go all the way to the Republican
convention in July.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because the bulk of
the GOP establishment will not be inclined to give Trump their support, he will
need to use the most important leverage he still has in order to persuade them
to do so: a third party run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Donald Trump is a billionaire and has a strong a devoted
following within the Republican Party.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>He could easily run (or threaten to run) as a third party candidate,
which would undoubtedly end in disaster for the Republican Party in
November.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Republican establishment
will deem it necessary to nominate him, despite their deep reservations, in
order to keep the party united against the eventual Democratic nominee and win
back the White House.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--StartFragment-->
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There are other scenarios, of course, in which
Trump could win the nomination. He could
turn out new voters who aren’t showing up in the polls, do better in the early
states than expected, and win some supporters of other candidates currently
running. But as it currently stands, it
seems the best shot for Trump to be the GOP nominee is to accumulate a
plurality of delegates and then use his popularity as a way to ensure the GOP
establishment doesn’t choose someone else at the convention.</span><!--EndFragment-->
Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-22527640994914004132015-08-19T08:25:00.000-07:002015-08-19T08:25:48.357-07:00Democrats Should NOT Nominate Hillary Clinton<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrats have a
real problem on their hands. The
(overwhelming) frontrunner and (so far) presumptive nominee for their party’s
nomination for President is embroiled in controversy and scandal, is now losing
to several Republicans in head-to-head match-ups, and is distrusted by a large
majority of Americans, including Democrats themselves. How did the party get to this point?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Part of the
party’s problem is that it really didn’t have much of a credible alternative to
nominating Hillary Clinton.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Beginning in
2010, Republicans began winning incredibly important statewide positions such
as governorships and senate seats that could have been used by Democrats to
launch a national campaign.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Democrats
now hold only 19 governorships and 46 senate seats, and the large majority of
those members have little-to-no national profile.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Six months ago,
that didn’t seem to be much of a problem, however.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For years it had been assumed that Hillary
would run for President, and more like the way the Republican Party once chose
its nominee, Democrats were deferential to Clinton, feeling as though it was
her turn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After all, she was still
viewed favorably by a majority of Americans, and it appeared as though she held
a monolithic bloc of support among Democrats for the nomination.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In essence,
Clinton has spent the last few years boxing out other Democrats from jumping in
or even considering joining the race to become President.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The ‘inevitability’ card didn’t work for
Hillary in 2008, but that was largely due to the fact that Democrats had a very
large bench and a formidable challenger in Barack Obama.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Hillaryland was confident the same would
not happen in 2016, largely due to the aforementioned reasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But now Democrats
are (or should be) regretting allowing this to happen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With each passing day comes a new story
detailing Clinton’s woes caused by her email scandal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And it isn’t just coming from conservative
news sites, as Hillary would like us all to believe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some of the worst news has come from sources
like the New York Times, Washington Post, and even the Obama administration, as
its Justice Department and FBI are now investigating if there was any
wrongdoing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Even if it
magically turns out that Clinton did nothing wrong (and that is appearing
increasingly unlikely), Democrats should not nominate this flawed
candidate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This has nothing to do with
ideology; in fact, on most major issues, Hillary’s views are smack-dab in the
middle of where the rest of the Democratic Party is.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, she’s rarely broken with President
Obama on any major or minor policy issue.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The issue lies
with her trustworthiness, or lack thereof.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Americans deserve a President whom they can trust.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They deserve an election between two candidates
for whom they <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">want</i> to vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Americans don’t want to vote for “the lesser
of two evils”, as I have heard it put numerous times.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If Hillary
Clinton is chosen as the Democrats’ nominee, their party will likely lose next
November.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite the circus that is the
current Republican primary, the GOP will likely nominate a credible candidate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And while his or her views may not end up
aligning with the majority of Americans’ views, the public will still likely
choose that Republican, because he or she will be viewed as more honest and
trustworthy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So what options
do Democrats have?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For starters, there
are the candidates currently declared to be running: Bernie Sanders, Martin
O’Malley, Jim Webb, and Lincoln Chafee.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Obviously, at this point, Sanders is the only challenger to Clinton who
has more than one or two percent of support from Democratic voters (he is
currently averaging 25% in the RCP poll of polls).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bernie certainly
has the enthusiastic support of many Democrats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>His rallies are the largest of any candidate, Democrat or Republican,
and they are even rivaling the size of President Obama’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sanders has held consistent liberal beliefs
and has even attracted support from those normally disaffected with
politics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is possible, like Obama
before him, he could bring in and attract new voters and independents.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However,
Sander’s own liberal views could be his downfall in a general election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whether his supporters want to admit it or
not, his self-described socialist label will likely turn off more independents
than it will attract.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His positions are
much more liberal than the country as a whole, and it is unlikely he would
survive a general election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Further, his
age would make him the oldest President ever elected.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the past six elections, Americans have
always elected the younger of the two candidates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Then we have
Martin O’Malley.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On paper, O’Malley
seems like an ideal alternative to Clinton.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>He has eight years of executive experience as Maryland’s Governor, and
before that he was mayor of Baltimore.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>As Governor, he championed liberal causes like ending the death penalty,
legalizing gay marriage, and raising the minimum wage, among others.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He is relatively young and energetic and,
fairly or not, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">looks</i> like he could be
a President.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But O’Malley
isn’t catching fire anywhere, largely due to the fact that Clinton and Sanders
have sucked up all the oxygen in the media.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>October’s debate will be the first chance for O’Malley to truly show his
skills and ideas when matched up against the other two, but so far, he doesn’t
have a national organization that would be ready to turn increased support into
actual votes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jim Webb and
Lincoln Chafee are both in a category even lower than O’Malley.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Webb is likely much too conservative for the
Democratic base.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And while he would
likely be a good general election candidate (former Senator from Virginia, a
swing state; a decorated former navy veteran; fairly blunt-spoken), he is not a
good primary election candidate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Chafee
has been a Republican and Independent before recently switching to the
Democratic Party.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While his views align
with most Democratic voters, he has zero national profile and has terrible
politicking skills.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Which leads us
to any other candidates who haven’t yet declared.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Vice President Biden is the most obvious
choice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He clearly has the experience
necessary to become President.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His views
align well with the Democratic base and are often more liberal than even
Obama’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unlike most candidates who
would jump into the race at this late stage, Biden would likely be able to
raise the money and organization to at least compete nationally by the time the
primaries are under way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Biden’s main
problem is that he wouldn’t be seen as a change candidate in an election that
will likely want just that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any Democrat
will have trouble making the case that they are not just another four more
years of Obama’s Presidency, but for Obama’s VP, that case would be nearly
impossible to make.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Should Biden
decide to run, he would need to decide immediately.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It will take time for the organization to be
built and the funds raised.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More
importantly, it will take time for Democrats to realize that Hillary is
vulnerable and that Biden is a much more credible alternative.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There aren’t
many other options left for Democrats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Elizabeth Warren, once thought to be a true challenger to Clinton, has
ruled out running, and it seems as though she will stick to that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In any case, if she jumped in now, she would
likely just split the more liberal vote that is already supporting
Sanders.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Al Gore is also unlikely to
decide to run, and he wouldn’t be a great candidate for Democrats anyway. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Are Democrats
now stuck with Clinton? Not
necessarily. But they need to realize
quickly that her problems are not going to go away, and will only likely get
worse. Democrats should stop supporting
Clinton now in the hope that she will either drop out or that someone else will
be able to start gaining traction.</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-72515828166469561072014-11-06T10:40:00.000-08:002014-11-06T10:40:04.525-08:00The Real Winners and Losers of the Midterm
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The 2014 midterms brought with it hundreds of literal winners and losers. However, in the broader picture, here are our big three winners and losers of the night:</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Winners</span></u></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GOP Governors</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republicans had a much better than expected night
Tuesday.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We had projected them to lose
three seats, with many of them falling within one or two points of one
another.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, the GOP swept nearly
every competitive Governor race, and some that we didn’t even see as
competitive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What this means is that the GOP now control of the Governor’s
mansions since 2000. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The pickups include
wins in Arkansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Illinois.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Arkansas was pretty much a foregone
conclusion, but Maryland and Illinois, especially, shocked most political
observers. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Many of the other winners were incumbents running for
re-election in purple and even blue states.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>These Republicans not only will have more influence in their state’s
voting, but they also will have a bigger role in the 2016 Presidential
race.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For some, that includes running
for President, while for others it means more political sway with potential
endorsements.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Governor who looks
best coming out of Tuesday is Scott Walker, who has now won three statewide elections
in the past four years in liberal-leaning Wisconsin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">John Kasich</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One other Governor who came out of the midterms looking
strong is Ohio Governor John Kasich.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Kasich has taken credit for a much improved Ohio economy since he took
office, and he won re-election Tuesday night by a whopping 31 points.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>True, he had a challenger who was embroiled
in scandal and who turned out to be a very poor candidate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the scale of his victory is still
massive, especially in a state that is one of the most important to
Presidential candidates.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Though he would likely have a tough time as an establishment Republican in a potentially crowded Presidential field, Kasich has certainly established himself as a top-tier
contender for the Republican Vice Presidential nomination.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Republicans have never won the White House
without also winning Ohio, and the temptation to nominate the state’s extremely
popular Governor may just win out over choosing for other reasons, such as
courting a specific demographic.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Kentucky Democrats</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Despite a sea of Democrats losing their seats Tuesday night,
those in the Democratic-controlled state house of Kentucky surprisingly kept
their majority.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why is this important?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One reason: Rand Paul.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Paul is widely assumed to end up running for President in
2016, but under rules for Kentucky elections, no candidate can appear twice on
any one ballot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This means Paul cannot
run for both his current Senate seat as well as for President at the same time;
he would have to choose.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If Republicans had gained control of the state-house, it is
possible they could have signed legislation overturning this election law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, with a Democratic-controlled state
house and Governor, there is no way it will happen.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If Paul chooses to run for President, it will leave an open
seat in the Bluegrass State.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This could
provide an opportunity for a strong Kentucky Democrat to run for Senate and
have a good chance of winning, especially if Hillary Clinton is at the top of
the Ticket.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She is still relatively well
liked in the state and would likely want to make a play for winning Kentucky
herself.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: large;">Losers</span></u></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><u><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></u></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Pollsters</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We’ll have a more in-depth article specifically covering
this issue, but in short, the polls were wrong.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Our projections are mainly based on polling averages and they have only
about a 10% room for adjustment, which we, for the most part, tilted to the
Republican candidate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On average, it seems as though pollsters had about a four to
five point Democratic bias. Many of them are claiming that the race broke in
just the final few days of the campaign towards the Republicans, and that many
of their polls were not conducted in that time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But for a race that was remarkably stable for months, that seems like a
thin argument.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hillary Clinton</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let’s not kid ourselves; Hillary Rodham Clinton is almost
certainly going to run for President.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Considering that, the midterms were not a great omen for her
chances.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s certainly easy to read <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">too much</i> into this, but of all the
states in which she campaigned for the Democratic candidate, the only state in
which she seemed to have a positive effect was New Hampshire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Democratic Governor there, Maggie Hassan,
ended up winning by about six points, beating the spread between the state’s
Senate race.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In contrast, the Clintons put much political capital into
helping the Democratic candidates in Florida, Arkansas, and Kentucky, among
others.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All of those candidates lost by
a much larger margin than many were predicting (again, mostly due to polling
error).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Still, it seems as though
Clinton’s clout is much diminished from where it was even a year ago and
certainly lower than in 2008.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">All this likely won’t deter her from running.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Turnout was terrible in 2014, especially
among groups who typically support Democratic candidates, such as Hispanics,
youth, and single women.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A run by Clinton
will no doubt increase turnout among these three groups.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Martin O’Malley</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Unlike Clinton, Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley will
likely be deterred from running for President after Tuesday’s results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maryland’s electorate overwhelmingly voted
for the Republican candidate to replace O’Malley over O’Malley’s Lieutenant
Governor, Anthony Brown.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Brown was largely considered a proxy for a third O’Malley
term.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With Democrats not being able to
hold on to this deep-blue state, it is unlikely the current Governor will have
enough clout within the party to challenge Clinton, much less win a Democratic
primary.</span></div>
Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-15330795196734731722014-11-04T06:12:00.000-08:002014-11-04T06:12:12.948-08:00Election Projection - The Senate<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When we launched our Senate forecast in September, Republicans had an approximately 53% chance of winning a majority in the Senate. That is now up to about 77%. The change hasn't come exactly linearly, though there certainly has been at least some trend line, specifically over the past month. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The GOP's chances rose slightly in early September and then fell again when a string of polls showed Democrats with surprisingly strong results. However, that high for Democrats didn't last long, and since the GOP's low of 53.9% on October 12th, they have steadily increased, almost daily, their chances of taking a majority in the next Congress.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzsbq7pkPUXLNNfnCFJDRZGu2s_tOEQsrA2UXhN1FOl9GY_BuFkGtTKxZdwFPhqiCrS7rreICxZ8DEWjYf9G0TIDKZ8HrqBf7xwp4ebSj07FOlHtf3guQlg8d7XhMrgkEthvMKGN4JIztM/s1600/dem+chances.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzsbq7pkPUXLNNfnCFJDRZGu2s_tOEQsrA2UXhN1FOl9GY_BuFkGtTKxZdwFPhqiCrS7rreICxZ8DEWjYf9G0TIDKZ8HrqBf7xwp4ebSj07FOlHtf3guQlg8d7XhMrgkEthvMKGN4JIztM/s1600/dem+chances.png" height="228" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In that time, what has changed? Not that much, actually. Most races have just shifted slightly to the Republicans, which has created an overall shift in our forecast.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In September, our two closest races were Iowa and Colorado. Those states are now both leaning towards Republicans. Now, the two closest races are Kansas and Alaska. Kansas was leaning Democratic about two months ago, and Alaska was leaning Republican. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Alaska, however, is the exception. The majority of races have shifted about 10 to 15% towards the Republican candidate. Below, we'll go into more depth on each race.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrqQiHUG31WBxZyxN2-LC6DqzZUpVENVIPUFmTo5RLR7E9nzCRMYN1LTY4etLAnHHKAwg7i41k8XOj5k1PaRZPiZ7vtYSyBJafJ_w5CbgZb0pbZVhuG61mOpI2upnQw5qfiK0wj6IGnvNZ/s1600/dem+seats+final.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrqQiHUG31WBxZyxN2-LC6DqzZUpVENVIPUFmTo5RLR7E9nzCRMYN1LTY4etLAnHHKAwg7i41k8XOj5k1PaRZPiZ7vtYSyBJafJ_w5CbgZb0pbZVhuG61mOpI2upnQw5qfiK0wj6IGnvNZ/s1600/dem+seats+final.png" height="386" width="640" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOhcxcv9TVyKmGTq37CvvO_ypHRy1UeyIwiOVZBFi9od8JMmyiz46X4zJYn2zn55CooC9zH0SWyXVOpkSkgjcKxg-eHEHNRNNoOOTpVsFw9FKRi0bhzoWU8HbcZdU6gVgTqEoVE0IYb_ea/s1600/dem+seats+%25+final.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOhcxcv9TVyKmGTq37CvvO_ypHRy1UeyIwiOVZBFi9od8JMmyiz46X4zJYn2zn55CooC9zH0SWyXVOpkSkgjcKxg-eHEHNRNNoOOTpVsFw9FKRi0bhzoWU8HbcZdU6gVgTqEoVE0IYb_ea/s1600/dem+seats+%25+final.png" height="32" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Beginning with the race Democrats are most likely to win, New Hampshire's Jeanne Shaheen has held on despite a surprisingly strong challenge from former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. The race has become tight over the past few weeks, but Shaheen still holds a polling edge. She is expected to win by about 2%, according to our forecast.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">New Hampshire represents the only 'lean Democratic' state we have at this point, though North Carolina's Kay Hagan is nearly in that column. Her seat essentially must be won by Democrats in order for the party to have any hope of winning today. If Republicans were to win North Carolina, Democrats would only have about an 11% chance of winning, and that would include sweeping many states that they are clearly behind in at this point. Still, she has a 58% chance of winning tonight, and we project her to win by a margin of 1.2%.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Next in the tossup column is Kansas. Independent candidate Greg Orman could end up ruining the GOP's chances at a Senate takeover by turning what was once thought of as a safe Republican seat to a true tossup. He has about a 52% chance of winning at this point. The unknown factor is how the undecided voters in the race will vote. If they end up 'coming home' to the Republican candidate instead of largely splitting the vote between the two candidates, Roberts will end up winning. However, we assume Orman will win about 45% of the undecided vote, giving him a mere 0.3% win after it's all said and done.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVwroO7zsjx3XYUOTK8jzwZ9UAMLssXYFU9Gzct_dblu-uZQff-pZXK7eYWN8EidB_Uyvu9hRMxfooYRsZPt3dOn8Vmr9XeI70bDGYE6bAplt31Y1WCvc411TXFnaVOsUMNtFbuK0glNnc/s1600/senate+final.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVwroO7zsjx3XYUOTK8jzwZ9UAMLssXYFU9Gzct_dblu-uZQff-pZXK7eYWN8EidB_Uyvu9hRMxfooYRsZPt3dOn8Vmr9XeI70bDGYE6bAplt31Y1WCvc411TXFnaVOsUMNtFbuK0glNnc/s1600/senate+final.png" height="186" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Alaska is by far the state that could produce the biggest unknowns tonight. The polls won't be closed there until 1 am ET, and it could take weeks to tally all the mailed in and absentee votes. Polls (as expected) have been all over the place, with the average giving Mark Begich a very slight lead. But when factoring in the state fundamentals, Begich actually has less than 50% chance of winning (about 48%). That is essentially a coin flip. We project he will lose by about 1% to Dan Sullivan, but the uncertainty is high. Either candidate could win by about 5%, depending on which polls were closest.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Iowa and Colorado represent the first two 'leaning Republican' states. Polls have tightened in recent days in both states, but at this point, Democrats need to hope for a slight polling error or larger than expected turnout in order to keep either of these states.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Iowa's Joni Ernst has run a surprisingly strong campaign, while the Democrat, Bruce Braley, has made numerous unforced errors. The Democrat has only a 35% chance of winning now, down from about 50% in early September. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meanwhile, the situation is nearly exactly the same in Colorado. The Republican, Cory Gardner, is running about 2 points ahead in the polls, but we expect that to tighten slightly on election day due to Colorado's mail-in ballot law, which we see as helping the Democrat slightly. In the end though, we expect Gardner to hold on to win by about 1.7%. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Georgia is a state in which the Republican Senator is retiring, leaving an open seat. Democrats are working to finally turn Georgia purple, and it shows. Michelle Nunn is trailing by about three points currently, which is within the margin of error of most polls. We project that this race will go to a runoff, however, as the winner will need to win by more than 50% of the vote. We currently expect David Perdue to get just short of that, 49.9%. At this point, Nunn should be hoping for a runoff, because there is only about a 5% chance she could win outright tonight, given the current polling.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Louisiana's Mary Landrieu is in much the same boat, although she is most certainly not hoping for a runoff. We expect her to 'win' with about 46.4%, well short of the 50% she also needs for a runoff. Her problem, however, is that the vast majority of the votes not going to her main opponent, Bill Cassidy, are going to an even more conservative opponent. It's unlikely she will pick up many of those voters in a runoff, and her chances of winning eventually are only 14%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The next three races look to be safe for Republicans. It would require a huge polling error in any of these states to give an upset for the Democrats. Arkansas' Mark Pryor was running neck and neck with his Republican opponent for much of the spring and summer, but since then, Cotton has pulled ahead in the polls, and we expect him to win by about 6.2%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is a similar dynamic in Kentucky, home of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. His Democratic opponent was keeping the race close until a couple weeks ago, when she infamously refused to say who she voted for in the last Presidential election. Now, McConnell has pulled ahead, seemingly taking all of the previously undecided voters with him. He is favored to win by 7.8%. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And finally, Republicans had a bit of a scare in early October when a couple polls showed their candidate, Mike Rounds, with only a slim lead against either the Democratic or Independent candidates. However, after more polls were released and money was poured in the state to help shore him up, it seems like Rounds will safely win, with about 47% of the vote.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So, what does this all translate to? We now expect Republicans to net five seats tomorrow night, bringing them to 50 seats and leaving the Democrats with 48 seats (including Greg Orman). This scenario would require that <i>both</i> Michelle Nunn and Mary Landrieu would need to win their runoff elections, an extremely unlikely scenario. If Republicans win both, they will hold 52 seats (not including Orman) in January. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrats at this point need to hope for the polling to be slightly wrong in two of the three states including Alaska, Colorado, and Iowa. It's not an impossible scenario, and there's about a 25% chance Democrats could pull off an upset in those states, which is, not coincidentally, about the same chance they currently have at keeping the Senate in our overall forecast. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Either way, we won't know for sure who will control the Senate likely until January. It's going to be a fun and crazy night.</span></div>
Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-26294261475222592014-11-03T15:43:00.003-08:002014-11-03T15:52:04.427-08:00Election Projection - The Governors<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It's finally here! Tomorrow, the nation will vote in the 2014 midterms, and as such, Battleground270 is revealing our complete election projection for both the Senate (later tonight) and Governors races. This will include not just the chances of each candidate winning, but what we project to be the final vote share. Let's get started! </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDK_daVTVjMjUc-uoaWxXA2FxUkpgApCPjLmLoQlfCFk6yg8fPwSC-x2ZlFlRUc5nzBp6F6iPqgWXaF4W7BY_gEjEC7lOpEEFZGmWdmpxqIyJOWvBE_5oNx_1J4d84e45Fi_k-le9BTRIQ/s1600/gop+seats+%25+final.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDK_daVTVjMjUc-uoaWxXA2FxUkpgApCPjLmLoQlfCFk6yg8fPwSC-x2ZlFlRUc5nzBp6F6iPqgWXaF4W7BY_gEjEC7lOpEEFZGmWdmpxqIyJOWvBE_5oNx_1J4d84e45Fi_k-le9BTRIQ/s1600/gop+seats+%25+final.png" height="34" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you are a frequent reader, you'll notice a similar-looking image above. This represents the likelihood that the Republicans will have control of a certain number of Governor's mansions after the election. It's remained remarkable consistent throughout our forecast. At the beginning of our forecast, Democrats had a slightly better chance to have 23 seats, picking up two seats. Now, the model forecasts that the most likely outcome is that Democrats will pick up only one seat. The likelihood of this happening is 21.39%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But like any model, it represents the <i>most likely chance, </i>not the final result. That's where our vote share projection comes in. Like in previous years, we use data from the model to help determine who will actually win. In that, we factor in state fundamentals, polling recency, and some other more subjective factors to come up with a final vote tally. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Below, you will see the official projection. You will likely note that not all of the Gubernatorial races are represented on this chart. I have only calculated the chances for races that are not in the 'safe Dem' or 'safe GOP' column. We'll begin at the top and work our way down.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Georgia's race looked to be a nail biter, with a likelihood that it would go to a runoff. That conventional wisdom no longer seems to hold, as a string of polls in recent weeks has shown Governor Nathan Deal pulling ahead. We currently project that he will get greater than 50% of the vote and therefore avoid a runoff.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Massachusetts is another case in which our original assumptions were way off. The state is deep blue, and it was expected that the Democratic candidate would have a relative cake-walk to winning the election. We were probably wrong. The Republican, Charlie Baker, has pulled ahead in recent polls and taken a small but stubborn lead against Martha Coakley. It's likely that Massachusetts' liberal base will end up helping Coakley a bit, but in the end, we still project Baker to win by about 1.2%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Michigan Governor Rick Snyder has presided over a relatively liberal state for the past four years, and despite having decent approval ratings, he is barely ahead of his challenger. Again, this is because Michigan's electorate is much more favorable to Democrats. Additionally, voters have a relatively negative association with almost any incumbent this year, so that is also likely helping his challenger. Still, we project Snyder to win 49% to 48%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Wisconsin's Scott Walker is in much the same boat as Rick Snyder. He is facing a credible challenger and the polls are neck and neck. The most recent polling has shown a slight one to two point advantage for the incumbent, which translates to about a 67% chance of him pulling off a victory tomorrow. But it will be close. We expect him to win by only 1.3%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Now we are getting to the races we expect the Democrat to win. Despite being the closest incumbent to having a 50% chance, Maine's Governor's race is not expected to be the closest race of the night. This is due to the fact that the forecasting model does not take into account subjective factors when determining a percentage likelihood of winning, but we do take that into account when predicting the final vote share. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In Maine's case, there is an independent candidate on the ballot who recently made news by essentially saying that his voters shouldn't vote for him if they don't believe he will win (and he won't). Therefore, we've concluded that about 3% of Cutler's voters will end up voting for another candidate, and the majority of those voters will likely vote for the Democrat. That means we expect Michaud to beat the incumbent governor by about 1.4%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Next up is Colorado. This state is probably the 'swingiest' of all the battleground states this year. While the Senate race currently favors the Republican candidate, the Gubernatorial race has seen the lead switch to a different party almost every week. This week, Governor Hickenlooper has a slight edge, and we believe that will hold through tomorrow. However, his win is going to be by the slimmest of margins, about 0.5%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Alaska is yet another curious case in which we originally thought last December that Governor Parnell would skate to victory. However, after the Independent and the Democrat joined forces on a unity ticket, the race became very competitive. Most polls in September and early October showed the unity ticket leading by a healthy margin. But recent polls from the state show a tighter race. It is also worth noting (as we have in our Senate forecasts) that Alaska is an incredibly tough state to poll. We are basing our prediction off the polling, but we wouldn't be surprised if Parnell pulled off a win.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On the complete opposite side of the country, Florida Governor Rick Scott is in the political fight of his life to retain his position. He and former Governor Charlie Crist have been running neck and neck all fall, and this race is going to be decided on who shows up to vote. Crist has had the polling edge over the past couple weeks, and we have him winning by 1%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One incumbent who seems to be staying afloat is Illinois Governor Pat Quinn. Though his Republican opponent, Bruce Rauner, was leading him in almost every poll throughout the summer, Quinn has finally broken through by defining Rauner as a one-percenter who doesn't care for the working class. The line of attack seems to be working, as we expect Quinn to end up winning by 3.9% in President Obama's home state.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Kansas is, for once, getting a huge amount of attention this election cycle due to competitive Senate and Governor's races there. Governor Sam Brownback is in trouble with voters due to his aggressively conservative moves in the state, and it looks as though Democrats may strike back this year in the deepest of red states. Brownback has only a 33% chance of pulling off an upset, and we believe the race, though close will be won by about 1.4%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Rounding out the 'lean Democratic' states are Connecticut and New Hampshire. Neither state was on our radar early on, but both have become more competitive. Governor Malloy is now likely to win by only about 2.8%, while New Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan will win by about 3.6%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republicans have an outside chance of grabbing Rhode Island and Maryland. They've touted recent polls showing the races are closer than were expected. Still, Republicans are not leading in these states, and the Democrats shouldn't have too much trouble defending them. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you're counting, by now you will realize that we are predicting Democrats will actually pick up three seats as opposed to the model's "most likely" projection of only one seat. This is because, as we said before, the model gives someone who may end up winning by only half a point a 45% of still pulling off an upset. When calculating total vote share, it became more obvious that Democrats could have a decent night, at least for Gubernatorial races.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It will certainly be a fascinating night for political junkies. We predict there will be at least eight races in which the two major candidates will be within two points of one another. That is relatively unheard of in an election year. If we begin to see some of the close races that were predicted to be won by Democrats actually won by Republicans, it will likely be a terrible night for the Democratic party. However, if states like Wisconsin and Michigan end up being won by the Democratic candidates, it could mean that polling was off nationwide, and Democrats could have a better-than-expected night.</span></div>
Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-56397933649379390632014-11-02T07:00:00.000-08:002014-11-02T07:00:23.766-08:00Senate Update - Democrats Should Worry<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Since the middle of September, the conventional wisdom here (and at other sites like 538) has been that, yes, Republicans have a slight edge when it comes to the possibility of control of the Senate, but they are not heavy favorites and the Democrats don't need to panic. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That's probably changed now. Republicans now have a 73.3% chance at winning an outright majority, up from 69.8% yesterday. It's at a tipping point now where the GOP has about a 3 to 1 chance of winning Tuesday night. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The balance of the Senate is almost assuredly going to rest on three states: Iowa, Kansas, and Georgia, with Alaska as a wild card. Democrats would need to win three of those four contests, assuming they kept other states in which they are ahead (NC and NH) and lost the other states in which they have consistently trailed (CO, AR, LA, KY, WV, SD, and MT). That scenario would also include the Kansas Independent caucusing with the Democrats, as we assume.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Overall, the races in all of those four states are pretty close, with Alaska being a bit more of an unknown. We had a flurry of polling out of Iowa yesterday showing a statistically tied race. However, yesterday the Des Moines Register poll found Ernst leading by seven points. The Register poll is typically an excellent bell-weather for where the state is at. However, it's extremely unlikely that her lead is seven points, when every other poll has shown something between a two point lead for her to a one point lead for Braley. Still, Ernst's chances of winning have risen to 63%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Kansas is now ranked as the closest state in our forecast. Each side has an exactly 50% chance of winning. Orman has had a slight lead in most recent polls, but the conservative tilt of the state will likely help Roberts with undecided voters. Democrats need Orman to win <i>and then</i> decide to caucus with them.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In Georgia, it now seems as though neither side will win on Tuesday. Most polls show the race as tied or giving it slightly to Perdue. But Perdue isn't getting to 50%, mainly due to the Libertarian on the ballot. At this point, Democrats should be happy if the race goes to a runoff. That won't necessarily give Democrats more of an advantage, but it gives them a longer time to get ahead again in the polls. Currently, Perdue has a 60% chance of <i>eventually</i> winning.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, Alaska is our wild card. As we discussed this week, polling in Alaska is scarce and unreliable. We have a couple polls now showing the Democratic incumbent with a large lead and multiple surveys showing the Republican, Dan Sullivan, with a marginal lead. To make it even more suspenseful, we likely won't know the final tally of the votes in Alaska for a week or two after the election. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It all ads up to the likelihood that we won't know the fate of the Senate on election night, unless Republicans pull off surprise wins in places like North Carolina and New Hampshire. If that happens, Democrats are going to have a long night, and it will be apparent that the polls were skewed towards the Democrats the entire time. However, the opposite could happen; if Democrats win by larger than expected margins in those east coast states, it may be a sign that the polls were biased towards the Republicans. </span></div>
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Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-52964269851839535132014-11-01T05:38:00.002-07:002014-11-01T05:38:19.458-07:00Senate Update - Iowa is Key<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQqO_pFJfWpddvtJSe_zqf9jAVzXFUa_dDqwP8VkPgmIm0GYucRKNSyXMzrKqHwUwbDK7v0azXUaDZjTw4_zPRhrYZuo8JNqPOO9Mt7C6yX9wPWt-iBFWjdWnZSTIVJ-CaWIF3wp-0X8Vm/s1600/dem+seats+31+oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQqO_pFJfWpddvtJSe_zqf9jAVzXFUa_dDqwP8VkPgmIm0GYucRKNSyXMzrKqHwUwbDK7v0azXUaDZjTw4_zPRhrYZuo8JNqPOO9Mt7C6yX9wPWt-iBFWjdWnZSTIVJ-CaWIF3wp-0X8Vm/s1600/dem+seats+31+oct.png" height="386" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Lot of new polling from Iowa today, and basically all of it told us what we already knew: the race is a dead heat. However, in every poll, Braley never led. While all were within the margin of error, Ernst led by two in one poll, one point in two polls, and they were tied in the other. This race will perhaps be the closest race on Tuesday night...</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">... Except perhaps Kansas. A new poll showed Orman leading by only one point, and that matches up with his overall average against Roberts. The polling in Kansas has jumped around a bit more, so there's the potential for either candidate to win by a larger-than-expected margin. Still, this one could go into overtime.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In North Carolina, it seems as though Senator Kay Hagan may just hold on. Two new polls out today had Hagan leading, though they were both within the margin of error. The early vote numbers look good for her. Still her chances haven't changed from 61%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, we have two other states of note. Rasmussen polled the Alaska Senate race and found the Republican, Dan Sullivan, ahead by five points. As we've noted before, Alaska is a tough state to poll, but nonetheless, Sullivan's chances increased to 58%. And in New Hampshire, Senator Jeanne Shaheen got more good news with a poll showing her seven points against her challenger. This is the second poll in as many days to show her lead in the high single digits, indicating that while the race may be close, she is clearly ahead. Shaheen now has an 80% chance of winning.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Overall, though, the Senate picture is completely unchanged. Republicans still have a 69.8% chance of retaking the upper chamber. At this point, no news is good news for Republicans.</span></div>
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<br />Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-18057917111641701222014-10-31T11:18:00.000-07:002014-10-31T11:20:45.704-07:00Gubernatorial Update - Halloween Edition<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeb6yWzu_K6s3NGINbxHwashdfhX4YS9aGiTvbDAl4Oh6WkY_Lv4w2rxyhIaVcOMeeNIsz9y3y3fAnHKZjkTUf8Pguy5dNxFVKQap7RLjjqUb1i7rR9jAo5I4xQ8OvArYwsLn1lVWafo75/s1600/overall+gov.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeb6yWzu_K6s3NGINbxHwashdfhX4YS9aGiTvbDAl4Oh6WkY_Lv4w2rxyhIaVcOMeeNIsz9y3y3fAnHKZjkTUf8Pguy5dNxFVKQap7RLjjqUb1i7rR9jAo5I4xQ8OvArYwsLn1lVWafo75/s1600/overall+gov.png" height="640" width="337" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It has been a few days since we last updated the Gubernatorial forecast here at Battleground270. Overall, not much has changed as far as how many seats each party is expected to have after November 4th. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republicans still have a slightly better chance of only losing one seat as opposed to multiple or keeping or gaining on their majority. There is about a 21% chance Democrats will pick up one seat, while there is an almost even chance, at 20%, that Democrats will pick up two seats.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So which seats are ripe for picking off? Well, it seems as though Democrats will pick up seats in multiple states, but that will be offset by some gains by Republicans in currently Democratic-held states.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democratic Pickups</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett is pretty much dead in the water, and that seat is the only sure pickup Democrats have at this point. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Beyond Pennsylvania, Democrats certainly have pickup opportunities, but they are less likely. Kansas' Republican Governor is currently trailing in the polls, but because of the conservative tilt of the state, Governor Brownback still has a 43% chance of holding on. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In Florida, we see a similar situation playing out. The Democratic candidate, former Governor Charlie Crist, is leading Governor Scott in the polls. This time, though, because Florida doesn't have a Democratic or Republican tilt in our model, Crist has a 62% chance of taking back the Governor's mansion.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Maine is another state that Democrats believe they will pick off on Tuesday. The Governor there is deeply unpopular with a majority of the electorate, but he could still survive if the Independent candidate draws enough of the anti-LePage vote. To perhaps combat that scenario, the Independent candidate said Wednesday that people should essentially vote for someone else (wink wink) if they don't believe he can win (which he can't). It will be interesting to see the final numbers in this race Tuesday night.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, Democrats are underdogs but still have decent chances against sitting Republican Governors in Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Wisconsin is seen as the likeliest of these races going to the Democrats, but a poll out Wednesday showed Governor Scott Walker with a seven point lead. While this poll is almost assuredly an outlier, it should be noted that there haven't been 'outliers' in Mary Burke's favor. Still, before that poll, Walker's chances were only 51%. They are now 64%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Georgia and Michigan represent tougher opportunities for Democrats. Of the two, Republicans have a better chance of holding onto Michigan, despite its Democratic tilt, because polls currently show Rick Snyder with a small but consistent lead. In Georgia, however, if Governor Nathan Deal cannot secure 50% of the vote on Tuesday, the race will go into a runoff, where the Democrat will have another shot at taking him down.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Republican Pickups</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Despite all these possible gains for Democrats, Republicans look like they will have some pickups as well. Arkansas is the only state in which it looks like a sure thing for the GOP to win the seat. A string of polls has shown the Democrat, Mike Ross, trailing by a large amount. He now has only a 3% chance of winning.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Massachusetts is the next best pickup opportunity for the GOP. The Democrat, Martha Coakley, was at one time the heavy favorite. But her in a combination of her running a not so great campaign and the Republican running a near flawless campaign, the seat will now more than likely turn red.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In both Colorado and Connecticut, Republicans have recruited strong candidates to run against the incumbent Governors. Colorado seems to be a dead tie at this point, with both candidates showing leads in recent polls. In Connecticut, the Republican candidate has a slight lead in the most recent polls. However, like with some other states, Connecticut has a deep blue tilt and that brings his chances of victory down to only 51%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, Republicans still have a slight chance to win in deep blue Illinois. The Republican, Bruce Rauner, was leading in some polls earlier this month, but the most recent ones show Governor Quinn with a slight lead. His chances are now 62% that he'll keep the seat.</span></div>
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Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-46211700814956155582014-10-30T20:07:00.000-07:002014-10-30T20:07:12.311-07:00Senate Update - Arkansas is Off the Map<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thursday brought a lot of unexpected (and contradictory) polling. For starters, Elon University found North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan ahead by four points while Rasmussen showed her ahead by one. Either way, Kagan's lead has probably stabilized to around one to two points. She now has a 62% chance of winning.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A similar story played out in New Hampshire, where an ARG poll put the race at a tie, while UNH showed Senator Jeanne Shaheen leading by eight points. Again, her lead is likely not that large, but the race is also probably not a tie at this point. Brown has yet to lead in any poll by more than one point. Brown's chances of victory have now dropped to 24%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In Colorado, polls are continuing showing Cory Gardner with a lead, but they vary by how much. Quinnipiac now has the Republican ahead by seven, while SurveyUSA has him ahead by only two, well within the margin of error. SurveyUSA's result was unchanged from their previous survey, indicating the race likely hasn't moved in the past couple weeks to one candidate or another. As I've noted before, especially in this race, it will be all about turnout.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mitch McConnell is also resting easier tonight, with a new poll showing him ahead by five points over Grimes. The SurveyUSA poll had previously had McConnell leading by only one point, so it seems the race has indeed shifted in the Republican's favor. McConnell's chances of winning next Tuesday are now 86%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, we come to Arkansas. We haven't had a whole lot of polling from the state, which has left the model somewhat uncertain. However, in the past two weeks, we've gotten five </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">polls, each showing the Republican, Tom Cotton, ahead. But what really hurts Democrats are the two polls out today showing Cotton with a seven and thirteen point lead. While it's probably Cotton doesn't actually lead by thirteen, it would be highly unusual for a poll to be thirteen points off, meaning Pryor only has a 5% chance of still winning this race, down from 18% before those polls.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mostly on the basis of the Arkansas numbers, Republican's chances overall rose from 65.7 to 69.8%. That result now accounts for the highest chance the GOP has had since we launched this forecast in mid-September. With only four more days until the election, Democrats are going to need all of them to be pretty good polling days in order to feel more comfortable going into Tuesday.</span></div>
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<br />Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-71646522013436941592014-10-29T13:05:00.003-07:002014-10-29T13:05:36.062-07:00Senate Update - 29 October<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On the whole, Democrats didn't get great news out of today's polls. We saw two new polls out of Georgia, as well as a poll in Iowa and one in Kansas. Republicans saw their chances of taking the majority increase to 65.7%, up from 64.4% yesterday. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let's begin with the good news for "Democrats". That is, the poll from Kansas showed the Independent leading Senator Pat Roberts by two points. Orman's average lead now is about one point, which would translate to about a 58% chance of victory on election day. However, that doesn't include state fundamentals, which bring his chances down to 52%. Still, that is higher than his chances yesterday, which were at 49%. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Iowa, in contrast, gave Joni Ernst a slight advantage. A new Quinnipiac poll put her up by four points over her challenger, Bruce Braley. Still, because we have so many polls from this race, her average lead didn't change much. She now has about a 61% chance of winning next week, up from 59% yesterday.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, the two polls in Georgia showed a statistically tied race, which is probably best described as bad news for the Democrat, Michelle Nunn. Her lead had been growing until a couple days ago, and it seems the race has reverted back to a tie. The first poll, from SurveyUSA, had Perdue leading by three points. The second poll, conducted by Rasmussen, showed a tie. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Either way, this race looks headed for a runoff, as either of the candidates would need to win by about three or four points in order to get 50% of the vote. And that is why it is probably bad news for Democrats. The conventional wisdom is that in a runoff election, turnout will likely be lower, which usually helps the Republican. Still, there is a week left, and it could be that the pollsters are missing something on either side. But more likely, we won't know the fate of the Georgia race until January.</span></div>
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<br />Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-37220492002919257342014-10-28T10:21:00.003-07:002014-10-28T10:21:35.823-07:00Gubernatorial Update - Still Many Tossups<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yesterday, YouGov blessed us with polling from all of the major gubernatorial races. While some polls helped add some confidence to our model about certain races (such as Rhode Island, Arkansas, and Hawaii), others just added to the confusion.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There are still seven states which could be described as 'tossups' and many more which are on the edge. The tossup states are Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, and Wisconsin. Of those, the model is most sure about Colorado and Illinois, giving the Democratic incumbents a 58% and 57% chance of victory. The others are all between five percent of one another. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrats are now about equally likely to win 22 and 23 seats, with the latter being slightly more likely. Still, their chances of getting to at least 25 seats are only about 10.7%, about the <a href="http://battleground270.blogspot.com/2014/10/senate-update-whats-going-on-in-alaska.html" target="_blank">same chance</a> Democrats have to come away with exactly 51 seats in the Senate.</span></div>
Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-64736552644778268272014-10-28T09:29:00.001-07:002014-10-28T09:29:06.442-07:00Senate Update - What's Going on in Alaska?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHM6fkKr3r9T2t6qQRrjZaFOGdquNSwgTBeC5h44_KH7kpXL5B95x2OZkiV7yOx_ZOW1zoRz0sdUlS1OIU31P11ma8B-abLwZAyKhzwAtpc7IFc3YWrilqex_jANGQSn2BajEhr9rlheeH/s1600/dem+seats+28+oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHM6fkKr3r9T2t6qQRrjZaFOGdquNSwgTBeC5h44_KH7kpXL5B95x2OZkiV7yOx_ZOW1zoRz0sdUlS1OIU31P11ma8B-abLwZAyKhzwAtpc7IFc3YWrilqex_jANGQSn2BajEhr9rlheeH/s1600/dem+seats+28+oct.png" height="386" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Regular readers will know that there is always a lot of uncertainty in the polls in Alaska, which is why the model typically is less sure of the outcome. Today, that is especially true.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is because a new survey was released today showing Democratic Senator Mark Begich with a six point lead. Another survey last week had shown him with a whopping 10 point lead. Meanwhile, a CBS/NYT/YouGov poll over the weekend put Sullivan ahead by four points. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Alaska has always been a very difficult state to poll, and that is certainly reflected in these wildly different results. For much of the summer and fall, Sullivan has had leads of between two and six points. But these new polls tell a wildly different story. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Much hay has been made about Begich's incredible ground game, and as <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-senate-polling-in-alaska-is-making-us-sweat/" target="_blank">Harry Enten noted</a>, a turnout of only a few thousand extra voters could swing the race by about 3%. Before today's poll, Begich's chance at winning were only 30%. However, afterwards they stand at 45%. This brings the GOP's overall chances at winning the majority in the Senate to 64.4%, down from 67.7% yesterday. That amounts to the largest change in our forecast since two weeks ago, when Republicans on the whole had a really great day of polling.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Most of the other polls released had a minimal effect on the model. Iowa's Bruce Braley's prospects increased to 41% from 37%, but Senator Mary Landrieu's fell from 14% to 11%. Meanwhile, both of the Republicans in Colorado and North Carolina increased their chances of victory to 72% and 41%, respectively. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Overall, this means that the fate of the Senate is even more up-in-the-air than we previously thought. Meanwhile, due to probable runoffs in both the Louisiana and Georgia races, there is now about a 70% chance we won't know the who hold the majority until much after November 4th. That's enjoyable for political junkies like myself, but probably not so good for the candidates in those races.</span></div>
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Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-17074695404656471062014-10-27T05:56:00.000-07:002014-10-27T05:56:08.963-07:00Does Harry Reid Care More About Power or the Majority?<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The race for the Senate is close. Like, <i>really</i> close. But there is an additional wild card that no one is talking about. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That wild card is Greg Orman. Orman hasn't decided yet who he will caucus with. He has said he won't decide until he gets to Congress and will caucus with the majority party. But it is very likely <i>his </i>vote will be the determining factor. But wether it is the Democrats or Republicans, the Independent has also said he will not vote for either Majority Leader Harry Reid or Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For Mitch McConnell, this scenario doesn't really matter. If Democrats win 49 seats (not including Orman), and Republicans hold 50, Orman's vote would <i>have to be </i>for the Democrats for it to be a tie (which would be broken by Vice President Biden). If Orman did not vote for Reid, however, McConnell would win with 50 votes to Reid's 49. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So, this scenario would require Reid to willingly decide to give up his power as Majority Leader and allow another Democrat to step in. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At first blush, it seems like the Majority Leader would not be willing to make this move, even if it means having a majority. There would likely be a hard push from from Democrats to appease Orman in order to keep the majority, but the man in question would likely not relent. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Also, who would be the next choice for Democrats? Senator Chuck Schumer has been Reid's right hand man for some time now and would be an obvious replacement. He is from a safely Democratic state, one which is the fundraising capital of the politicians he would be leading. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">More likely though, Harry Reid will play roulette and hope the Independent will eventually cave. </span></div>
Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-34527590325292944052014-10-26T20:00:00.004-07:002014-10-26T20:00:52.754-07:00Senate Update - 26 October<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This year's midterms are shaping up to be among the most unpredictable and suspenseful in recent history. This is due to the large number of races that neither party has been able to put away. For the Democrats, those races include North Carolina and New Hampshire. For the GOP, the list includes Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Colorado, and Iowa. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As we discussed Friday, many of those races are likely to go to the GOP, not because there is a wave election, but because it is a year in which Democratic Senators must defend their seats when it isn't a wave year for their party, as it was in 2008. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And despite a spate of new polling out today, we're still no closer to knowing who will likely control the Senate majority in January. I won't go through every poll and race, but I will mention the races that moved to a larger degree and those that are still pretty much the same.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Senator Mark Udall got a slight bump today from two new polls showing the race a statistical tie (one showed him up by 1, the other down by 1). This helps improve his odds of winning to 33%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Both of those polls also showed David Perdue leading Michelle Nunn by a small margin. Still, Nunn has led in most of the recent polling, and the state is now only leaning towards Perdue, 51% to 49%. Chances rose today that the race will go to a runoff in January as neither candidate seems to be pulling ahead.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Senator Pat Robert's chances increased slightly today to 51% as one of the new polls showed his lead to be four points. The other showed him trailing by one point. Still, the race is as close as any, and it's very likely we'll be up late next Tuesday before we know who won the state.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jeanne Shaheen's chances also rose today, on the heels of the CBS/NYT/YouGov poll that put her ahead of former Senator Scott Brown by five points. This is her largest lead in the past couple weeks and is outside the margin of error. With only one week left for Brown to hope for a game changer, Shaheen's chances are now 67%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, we at long last got another poll from South Dakota, and it appears the Republican, Mike Rounds, is in little danger of losing the race. The poll showed him handily defeating both the Democrat and the Independent. His win probability increased from 92% to 96%, as the three-way race can still make for a bit of unpredictability.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And despite all the new polls, each party's chances remained relatively the same. Republicans now have a 67.7% chance of winning control of the Senate, down about half a point from Friday. Each party now has only nine more days to lock down the races they need, but realistically, Tuesday Nov. 4th's forecast is probably going to look very similar to tonight's.</span></div>
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Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-73952683227110915172014-10-26T18:55:00.003-07:002014-10-26T18:55:52.779-07:00Gubernatorial Update - 26 October<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiWK7fCF8_y15CnFcRo0pRG7AFgjtsbTNzmZcEYvNJb_ukQTrJytDzdSE5HDsVjqgPPqOlNdcpGu22wCjv54aEs56bawIlpUV-2KrKNSbyfuGrC-QbX_Vt25iSGMHwqYYflfM7UqZkmnLs/s1600/gop+seats+%25+26+oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiWK7fCF8_y15CnFcRo0pRG7AFgjtsbTNzmZcEYvNJb_ukQTrJytDzdSE5HDsVjqgPPqOlNdcpGu22wCjv54aEs56bawIlpUV-2KrKNSbyfuGrC-QbX_Vt25iSGMHwqYYflfM7UqZkmnLs/s1600/gop+seats+%25+26+oct.png" height="34" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We haven't updated our gubernatorial forecast in a few days, but in reality, not much has changed. There have been many polls out of Georgia, Colorado, Kansas, and Illinois, but most of them haven't moved the needles for their prospective candidates much. Despite getting some good polling news on Friday, Georgia's Jason Carter received some more polls showing he was still trailing incumbent Governor Nathan Deal. The race has tightened slightly, but Deal still has a 62% chance of winning.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In Colorado, it appears as if Governor John Hickenlooper is doing better than his Democratic counterpart, Mark Udall. He consistently polls about three to four points better against his opponent than does Udall, and that will likely make the difference in the race for Governor. Hickenlooper's chances have increased to 55% from 50%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In Kansas, the race is still close, but two new polls from Rasmussen Reports and NBC/Marist show the Democrat, Paul Davis, with a seven and one point lead, respectively. The race appears to be leaning in Davis' direction, but Kansas is still a very red state, and that means Davis' probability of a win is still only 49%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, two fresh polls from Illinois show the Republican challenger, Bruce Rauner, leading Governor Pat Quinn by one and two points. In a way, Illinois is the exact opposite as Kansas. Pat Quinn is a Democratic Governor who is deeply unpopular in his state. The challenger is leading slightly in the polls, but the outcome will be uncertain because of the deep tint of the state. Still Quinn has a 47% chance of victory. He faced longer odds in 2010 and still came out on top. We'll see where the final week of the campaign takes this race.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Overall, the Democrats are still expected to have the best chance of gaining one seat from their current 21 seats. </span></div>
Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-32239304496604786502014-10-25T10:13:00.002-07:002014-10-25T10:13:14.966-07:00Senate Update - Georgia Georgia Georgia<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yesterday, we received a total of three new polls out of Georgia. While they all showed that the race is still a close one in the state, they each differed on who had the lead. The first, from CNN, showed the Democrat, Michelle Nunn, with a three point advantage. Then, the Atlanta Journal Constitution's poll of the state was released and found David Perdue leading Nunn by two points. The final poll, released last night, showed the race as a tie. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The model takes the three polls into account equally, but it has become clear the past couple days that Michelle Nunn is ahead, if only by a small margin. Her bigger problem is that she is not clearing 50%, which she needs in order to avoid a runoff. Still her chance of leading on election day is now 53%, up slightly from yesterday at 52%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Another Democrat received good news yesterday with a new poll showing Senator Jeanne Shaheen leading by three points. Though her lead has been small, it has been remarkably consistent. That affects the model in that it is more confident that she is actually ahead. Therefore, her chances rose from 62% to 64%. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, a new poll from Colorado showed Mark Udall trailing Republican Cory Gardner by five points. However, this is slightly less than six point deficit Udall saw in the prior poll. Additionally, some of the older polls have become less relevant, and Udall's chances have risen to 30% from 25%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Overall, the GOP's chances of winning a majority are still moderately strong, at 68.3%, but that is down from 69.4% yesterday. This marks the first time in the last ten days that the party's chances have decreased rather than increased (or stayed the same). Stay tuned to see if this is just a fluke or if it is more of a trend.</span></div>
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<br />Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-89277345545557494712014-10-24T05:28:00.001-07:002014-10-24T05:28:50.827-07:002014 Senate Forecast<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-71811655877762772102014-10-23T13:13:00.003-07:002014-10-23T13:13:25.818-07:00Senate Update - Good (and Bad) News for Democrats<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Today brought some new polls from some places we haven't heard from in awhile. The most consequential of which was a poll from Rasmussen Reports showing Greg Orman leading Kansas Senator Pat Roberts by five points. This is the first poll to show Orman leading by that large of a margin since the beginning of the month. Still, Kansas is a very red state, and Orman's chances are only 51%. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Other polls out today essentially confirmed the status quo. Iowa's Joni Ernst leads Bruce Braley by two points and Cory Gardner leads Colorado Senator Mark Udall by the same margin. Their chances are now 64% and 75%, respectively. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There were also two new polls out of New Hampshire today. One showed Jeanne Shaheen ahead by two points and the other had her leading by one point against Scott Brown. The race has no doubt tightened in recent weeks, but Shaheen is holding on to a small but stubborn lead. Her chances of re-election now stand at 62%, down from 68% yesterday.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, InsiderAdvantage polled Georgia and found what we have been seeing for the past week: Michelle Nunn is ahead, if only by the smallest of margins. Her chances of winning have increased to 52%, the first time she has been favored to win. Still, Nunn needs to clear 50% of the vote on November 4th. Otherwise, she and Perdue will go into a runoff in early January. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Currently, the Libertarian candidate in Georgia is pulling an average of about 5% of the vote, which means that in order to top 50%, Nunn would need to beat Perdue by that same amount. At this point, her lead is only about a point or two. We expect the Libertarian Candidate to only receive about 3 or 4% of the vote on election day (third party candidates typically poll better than they perform), so that lowers the bar a bit for Nunn. If she continues widening the gap between herself and Perdue, we might not have to wait until January to find out who controls the Senate.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As it stands, Republicans incrementally increased (again) their chances of winning the majority. They now have a 69.4% chance, up from 68.2% yesterday. You may wonder why the party's fortunes are rising even when Democrats get (mostly) good news. It is because polls taken more than two weeks ago are given less weight than previously. As you know, a two weeks ago, Republicans only had a 55% chance of winning (because of some good polling at the time for Democratic candidates. Still, if new polls come in giving good results for Democrats, the same will happen for Republican-favored polls. </span></div>
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Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1145222074947388021.post-2122735937395247052014-10-23T07:51:00.005-07:002014-10-23T07:51:40.537-07:002014 Doesn't Look Like a Wave<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Midterm elections are often 'wave' elections - an election in which one party sweeps nearly all of the competitive races and makes large gains in both houses of Congress. However, 2014 doesn't look like it will be one of those wave elections, despite what the media is saying.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For this year to be a wave for the GOP, both parts of that definition must hold true. First, the GOP would need to win most or all of the 'purple' state races and even pick off some of the more traditionally 'safe' Democratic seats. Further, they would need to do this without taking losses in traditionally 'red' states.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2010 was no doubt a wave election for the GOP (as was 2006 for Democrats). In that year, Republicans won in Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Florida, and even picked up a seat in deep blue Illinois. Further, they would have also won in Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware had the party not nominated more extreme candidates who couldn't appeal to the independents. Additionally, Republicans didn't lose a single seat held by an incumbent of their party.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That year, the GOP picked up seven Senate seats and a whopping 63 House seats (we'll talk more about that later). This year, the party may pick up an additional seven seats, but this time, it's different. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In 2010, the Senators up for re-election had won their last election in 2004, a moderately good year for Republicans. Therefore, the party didn't have many incumbents to defend in the more Democratic states. However, this year, Democrats are defending seats they won in 2008, a banner year for the party. Now, Democrats have incumbents running for re-election in deep red states such as Alaska, Arkansas, South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia. It shouldn't be any surprise that even in a neutral year, Democrats would lose most, if not all of those states, and by fairly large margins.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But here's the rub: most of those states (not including Montana and West Virginia) are still highly competitive this year. Sure, the GOP may take all of those states, but it won't be by blowout margins.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Additionally, to qualify as a 'wave', Republicans would need to pick off Democratic-held seats in most, if not all of the 'purple' states, and possibly pick up a more traditionally Democratic seat, such as Minnesota , Michigan, or Oregon. So far, of the purple states, Republicans are ahead in Colorado and Iowa, but behind (slightly) in North Carolina and New Hampshire, and they are being blown out in Virginia. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Michigan was once thought to be a competitive swing state, but the Democrat, Gary Peters, is now way ahead of his Republican rival. Minnesota and Oregon are also not even close. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To further drive the point, Republicans would need to easily hold on to their seats in red states. But that isn't happening either. The Independent candidate (who will probably caucus with Democrats, if he wins) Greg Orman is neck and neck with Pat Roberts in Kentucky; Democrat Michelle Nunn is leading her Georgian rival, and Kentucky's Alison Lundergan Grimes is only a couple points behind Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. These red state races will be close, indicating there's not going to be even a small wave for Republicans this year. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, with respect to the House of Representatives, the GOP is expected to pick up between 5-10 seats, but that isn't especially surprising given that most of those seats are in districts that have been gerrymandered by Republican state legislatures in order to help the GOP candidates. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Could a small wave still form? Yes. It would require Democrats losing in (at least) Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, and New Hampshire, as well as Republicans winning by larger than expected margins in Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, and the remainder of the red states. Further, the party would need to pick up close to twenty seats in the House. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Until evidence of that begins to appear, however, let's stop calling this a wave election.</span></div>
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<br />Devinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11612616306820182283noreply@blogger.com0