Now
that Mr. Romney has essentially secured the GOP nomination, the political
chatter class is in a tizzy about who will be his running mate. Between now and Romney’s announcement there
will likely be thousands of news and opinion articles speculating who he will
put on the ticket, and this will be one of them.
My
objective is to pick out a few candidates who I think would be most
beneficial for Romney to choose and to explain why.
But
before I do that, let’s look at timing of the announcement. I have heard speculation that Mitt Romney may
decide to announce his running mate sooner rather than later. While Mr. Romney has that choice, it is
extremely unlikely he will do it.
The
announcement of a running mate is like a breath of fresh air; a spark that can
rejuvenate a campaign. A running mate
gives the public (especially swing voters) a reason to give the candidate a
second look.
Just
as Sarah Palin did in 2008, the official VP selection has the potential to give
a jolt of energy to a campaign that may be flailing. To put it in automotive terms, a NASCAR
driver isn’t going to make a pit stop on the fourth lap. They are going to do it when the fuel is low
and the tires are worn. Similarly, the
Romney campaign will choose to take their pit stop when the fuel is low.
Also,
the announcement of a running mate invites vetting. This scrutiny comes from the media, the
opposition, and the public. The sooner
Mitt Romney announces his VP pick, the sooner that person’s favorabilities are
likely to drop. Imagine if Sarah Palin
had been selected in June instead of August.
Just. Imagine…
The
only benefit of Mr. Romney choosing a running mate sooner rather than later
would come if he chose a well-known public official who is similarly a favorite
of the Republican grassroots. The
candidate would need to be well known already in order to diffuse the
possibility of something coming out that would either hurt or disqualify the
individual in the eyes of the public.
The
main goal of selecting a darling of the right early in the election season is
to raise money. It is no secret that
President Obama’s team is hoping to raise $750+ M, and even though Romney will
have various GOP-backed super PACs, it is always more beneficial in a campaign
to be able to make your own decisions on where money is going and how it is
being spent. A selection like this would
surely energize conservative donors to support Romney’s campaign.
However,
with the possible exception of Mike Huckabee, there isn’t anyone I can think of
who clearly fits that description. There
are plenty of “severely conservative” possibilities, but none have been vetted
or are well known by the media and the general public, so let’s move on.
Traditionally,
with the exception of the obvious “must do no harm” rule, there have been four strategies
for selecting a running mate. They are
what I call the State Strategy, the Constituency Strategy, the Base Strategy,
and the Policy Strategy. All have been
used before, and an ideal candidate would fit into all four strategies.
State Strategy
In
the age of increased polarization and slim victories, the State Strategy has
become increasingly popular, at least in the eyes of pundits. However, so far it seems to be a strategy
more employed by Democrats than Republicans.
In
1992, Bill Clinton (in an arguably genius move) opted for a southern state
strategy by picking Al Gore as his Vice President. Not only did Clinton win Gore’s home state of
Tennessee, but he also carried other traditionally red states such as West
Virginia, Kentucky, Georgia, and Louisiana.
Most
recently, Barack Obama’s pick of Joe Biden could be seen as fitting into the
State Strategy. Along with strengthening
his numbers with white working class men, a key demographic in Pennsylvania and
Ohio, Mr. Biden also provided Obama with something like a hometown pick. Biden, originally from Scranton, Pennsylvania
and representing neighboring Delaware, could arguably be credited for Obama’s
win in Pennsylvania (though the margin was large enough there that it is likely
Obama would have won without Joe on the ticket).
For
Mitt Romney, there are plenty of candidates who would fit into the state
strategy. Marco Rubio would help out in
Florida; Bob McDonnell, the popular governor of Virginia, would surely be an
asset in his home state, along with neighboring North Carolina; Ohio Senator
Rob Portman has also frequently been mentioned as a possibility. In recent elections, Paul Ryan’s Wisconsin
has been a swing state, and Susana Martinez, governor of New Mexico, has also
been listed as a potential VP.
It
is likely Romney will put much weight on the State Strategy, given President
Obama’s perceived lead in the current electoral vote count (AP has Obama: 242,
Romney 188). However, grabbing one or
two states isn’t enough to get to 270; Romney will also need to check some of
the other strategic boxes.
Constituency Strategy
The
Constituent Strategy is that which places a heavy emphasis on improving the
numbers of a particular constituency in the electorate. For example, 2008 was very heavy on the
constituent strategy. Obama’s pick of Biden
arguably helped Obama (the first African
American nominee of a major party) with white voters who were perhaps uneasy
about Obama’s race.
Pennsylvania
CNN exit polls from both the primary and general election in 2008 reveal how
much the gap was closed: Obama received
only 37.2% of the white vote in the Pennsylvania primary. However, he would won 48% of the white vote
come Election Day in November. As a
quick disclaimer, one cannot assume that the vote in the primary will transfer
directly to general election vote share, yet it is clear that in the primary
fight with Clinton, working class white voters were seen as a clear
vulnerability.
The
same could be argued for McCain’s reason for picking Sarah Palin as his running
mate, though this time with gender in mind.
As has been well documented, specifically by Mark Halperin and John
Heilemann’s book Game Change, McCain’s advisers saw a great benefit in
choosing a woman to accompany the maverick Senator on the ticket.
Initially,
this move proved to be a clear winner for the McCain campaign: before the pick,
McCain was trailing Obama 50-42 among white women; after the pick, that margin
had reversed to McCain winning the segment 53-41. Had that margin persisted until November, it
is likely McCain would be occupying in the Oval Office (Mr. Obama ended up
winning white women 51-48).
The
Constituency Strategy is likely to also be very appealing to Mr. Romney this
year. As has been greatly reported in
the past couple months, Mitt is trailing the President badly among women and
Hispanics.
Luckily
for Romney, there are a few candidates who would have the potential to close
those constituency gaps. Marco Rubio has
been the most mentioned Hispanic candidate.
Not only is he a son of Cuban immigrants, Rubio is currently advocating
a version of the Democrat’s DREAM Act.
While the move could help Romney among Latino voters, any kind of
advocacy for citizenship from the GOP has shown to be a non-starter in the
party.
Also,
talk has been heating up of Susana Martinez.
Not only is she of Hispanic descent; she would also potentially help
Mitt with women. Other women
possibilities include Nikki Haley of South Carolina, Kelly Ayote of New
Hampshire, Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, former Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice, and Arizona Governor Jan Brewer.
Whereas Haley could help with women and potentially other minorities
(she is Indian-American), the selection of Brewer would likely have an inverse
effect on Hispanic voters because of her strong support of anti-immigration
laws in her home state.
Base Strategy
Pundits
like to say that elections are won or lost in the center; the candidate with
the higher share of independent voters is the one who will win. Therefore, it would seem like a no-brainer to
pick a running mate who was more towards the ideological center.
However,
the truth is that campaigns are not just built by a few people. It takes thousands of volunteers and hours of
time and energy to register voters, solicit donations, and build an infrastructure
that will take full advantage of the turnout on Election Day. This work is done almost exclusively by
partisans.
Again
looking back at 2008, it seems as though Sarah Palin fit into the Base
Strategy. It was no secret that John
McCain was bemoaned by the right wing of his party, and there was little
enthusiasm for his candidacy by anyone, specifically conservatives.
Such
as it is for Mitt Romney. No one seems
to truly love him, and the GOP base certainly does not. There is no doubt that most of true
Republicans will still vote for Romney, yet they may not be as active doing so
in campaigning and volunteering for him.
Because
of the 2010 Tea Party wave, there are certainly a large number of candidates
who are well regarded among conservative Republicans and nearly anyone Romney
could pick would be perceived to be to the right of him. The problem with many of those choices is
that most of them are just not ready for prime time on the national stage. Again, Marco Rubio is a rising star of the
right, as is Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, Bob McDonnell, and even Rick
Santorum.
Policy Strategy
The
Policy Strategy places heavy emphasis on key policy credentials that the person
at the top of the ticket may lack. These
typically include foreign policy, economic policy, and social policy.
The
clearest example of the Policy Strategy being employed by a Presidential
nominee was in Obama’s choice of Biden.
Despite Mr. Obama having very high foreign policy credentials among his
base (for being very outspoken about the Iraq War), swing voters still saw him
as much of a foreign policy lightweight.
There, in retrospect, the selection of Joe Biden, the (at the time)
Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was as beneficial as it was
predictable.
Because
foreign policy is likely to not be a huge factor in the 2012 elections, it is
unlikely Mitt Romney will place much emphasis on it, despite his own lack of
experience in foreign affairs. One could
see Romney choosing someone with strong conservative social policy credentials,
as he has in the past supported abortion rights, gay rights, and gun
control. However, this would be
something that would not appeal to the independent voters who Romney must win.
If
the Policy Strategy is used at all, it will likely be to double down on
economic policy, with which Mr. Romney is already perceived to be very
strong. There is little doubt the
economy will be the central theme in the fall, and having the ability to have
two economic heavyweights could prove to be a huge asset.
Unfortunately
for Mitt Romney, there are relatively few politicians who would fit the
bill. Paul Ryan and Mitch Daniels are
certainly the most plausible candidates, but after them, the list is slim
pickings. One could argue that Rick
Perry and Jon Huntsman would be great choices… if the former hadn’t shown his
political IQ in the debates and the other wasn’t to the left of Mr.
Romney. In all reality, the Policy
Strategy will likely be the option given the least weight from Romney’s
advisers.
So Who Will It Be?
I’ve
thrown out a lot of names, and there are some names that didn’t even get a
mention yet are probably on the list such as John Thune (SD) and Tim Pawlenty
(MN). Romney’s goal will be to check as
many strategy boxes as possible. After
all, Joe Biden fit into three of the four strategies in 2008. With that said, here is my top five picks, in
order:
1.) Marco Rubio: Not only does Rubio likely swing Florida to
Romney, his Latino background would likely help the GOP gain on that key
demographic in the Southwest, possibly denying Obama wins in Colorado, Nevada,
and even New Mexico. Further, he is a
huge star in of the right wing, which would excite the party in the same way
Sarah Palin did. Romney would just need
to make sure Rubio is more prepared than the former GOP VP nominee.
2.) Condoleezza Rice: I realize that Mrs. Rice does not check as
many boxes as perhaps others. In her
case, she doesn’t need to. Rice is a
well-regarded former Secretary of State who continued to have very strong
approval ratings even in Bush’s final year of office. She would provide the Romney team with a
woman with superb foreign policy credentials who has already been thoroughly
vetted by the public. Further, she may
provide to a small margin of African Americans a reason to vote for the
Republican ticket, which would hurt Obama in states like Virginia and North
Carolina. If Romney were to make an
early announcement, it should be for announcing Rice.
3.) Bob McDonnell: Governor McDonnell endorsed Romney early and
would likely help Romney take Virginia and North Carolina with his current
approval rating at 53%. Further, he
would probably excite the base, but at a cost: Romney’s approval among women
may further erode as Gov. McDonnell was recently supportive of the invasive
ultrasound procedure proposed by the VA legislature.
4.) Susana Martinez: Governor Martinez certainly checks some
boxes. Not only is she Hispanic, she is
also a woman. Mr. Romney must improve
his numbers among both constituencies.
Further, she is popular in her home state of New Mexico and would help
Romney with not only winning her state, but also Colorado and Nevada, with
their larger Latino populations.
5.) Paul Ryan: Despite Ryan authoring the so-called “Ryan
Budget Plan”, which is reviled by Democrats, Paul Ryan still has a shot at
being Romney’s VP. He is young, doubles
down on economic policy, and is very well regarded among conservatives. However, even though Romney has endorsed
Ryan’s budget, Mr. Ryan may still be deemed too politically volatile to put on
the ticket.
