What
keeps prospective GOP candidates awake at night? It isn’t the unrest in Egypt or the North
Korean regime. It isn’t the upcoming
2014 elections or the future 2016 primary.
It isn’t Obamacare, immigration reform, Dodd-Frank, gay marriage, or
government spending. It is one person,
and her name is Hillary Clinton.
Hillary’s
shadow looms large not just over her fellow Democrats who want a chance at the
nomination for President in 2016. Her
influence is so large it is affecting how the GOP candidates map their own
roads to the White House.
Of
course, Clinton hasn’t even announced whether or not she intends to run. Her decision is the most anticipated and
important announcement of the 2016 cycle.
Republicans
are afraid; and they should be. Hillary
Clinton would be the most formidable candidate from either political party
since Dwight D. Eisenhower. She is
generally respected by members of both parties and adored by Democrats. She proved herself competent and loyal by serving
as Secretary of State for four years.
And did I mention she’s a woman?
Fairly
or not, should Clinton run, she will undoubtedly pick up many votes from people
who just want to see a woman elected President.
Unlike Obama, who likely lost as many votes as he gained due to the
color of his skin, Clinton would likely see a net gain. Simply put, there just aren’t as many people
who think a woman should not be President.
Additionally, Hillary has the chance to excite a whole new generation of voters, much like Barack Obama did in 2008. These are people who are excited for something fresh and the prospect of making history.
Publicly,
most GOP pols will say they can beat Clinton, should she decide to run. But most of them are either wild optimists or
just lying. The biggest problem for
Republicans is not her public stature or her vast experience or her gender. Their biggest problem is the map.
Clinton
puts more states in play than any potential Republican candidate. Recent polls suggest she runs close or even
beats her GOP opponents in traditionally red states such as Georgia, Texas, Louisiana,
Kentucky, and even Alaska. And those are
just the states that have been polled on the hypothetical match ups.
In
addition to the aforementioned states, assuming states with similar
demographics behave similarly, Clinton puts the entire south in play (Arkansas,
Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, West Virginia, South Carolina, Arizona, and
Missouri). In total, those thirteen
states make up 140 electoral votes.
That
isn’t to mention how strong her lead is in traditionally Democrat states. The Republican candidate is going to have to
spend millions of dollars just to keep traditionally GOP states in their
column. That takes money away from going
on offense in swing states and blue states.
Assuming Clinton were to make those thirteen states into swing states, the map would then look something like the map shown here. The Republican candidate would only have approximately 51 "safe" electoral votes. Talk about a "shellacking".
Right
now, the astute political scientist is probably saying, “Yeah, all this is
true, but political parties rarely get a third term in the White House. The American people are going to be ready for
change”. And I agree.
This
is where Clinton has been incredibly politically shrewd. By taking the Secretary of State job, she was
able to detach herself from Obama in terms of domestic policy. Therefore, the stimulus, Obamacare,
Dodd-Frank, and anything else that is perhaps unpopular cannot be pinned on
her. Depending on how the public views
each of these issues in 2016, Clinton can shape her position in order to better
line up with public opinion.
Furthermore,
if the economy is seen as picking up steam and greatly improving, Clinton can
run on Obama’s legacy of economic development and promise to keep it going as
opposed to changing course with the GOP.
Given
all this, barring some unforeseen world event or scandal that seriously affects
her, Clinton will almost assuredly be the next President of the United States,
and that scares the shit out of Republicans.
