Donald Trump’s Presidency has offered the Democrats a rare
chance – and one they haven’t had in years – to take back the House in 2018.
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight is currently projecting that Democrats have about
a 73% likelihood (or about a 5 in 7 chance) that Democrats will win back the
House in November.
However, the picture isn’t so rosy for Democrats in the
Senate. Due to a daunting map this year in which Democrats are defending ten
seats in states Trump won in 2016 (and Republicans are only defending one such
seat Clinton won - Nevada), it is very likely that Democrats will have fewer Senators in
their caucus in 2019 than presently.
The below graph shows my current projection for the number
of seats Democrats will hold after the 2018 midterms. In order to have a
majority in the Senate, they must have 51 seats, as Vice President Mike Pence
would be the tie-breaker should the chamber have a 50/50 split. That leaves the
Democrats with only about a 5% likelihood of winning the Senate, even in what
is looking like a gangbuster year for the party nationwide.
In the 10 democratic states Donald Trump won in 2016, four
are considered “Toss-ups” (Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota), two
are “Leaning Democratic” (Montana and West Virginia), one is “Likely Democratic”
(Wisconsin), and three are “Safe Democratic” (Michigan, Ohio, and
Pennsylvania). Of the seats Republicans are defending, only three are rated as “Toss-ups”
(Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee), and one is rated as “Likely Republican”
(Texas).
To gain the majority, Democrats will need to net two seats,
which means they could conceivably win all three Republican-held toss-ups and
only lose one of their own, or they would have to keep all of their own seats
while still picking up two Republican-held seats. Either of those scenarios is
unlikely, given the heavily-Republican margins the states in the Democratic toss-ups.
Trump won both Indiana and Missouri by 19 points and North Dakota by 36 points.
And while he only won Florida by about 1%, the current multi-millionaire and
self-financing Republican Governor Rick Scott is running against Senator
Nelson. In order to compete against all that cash from Scott, Democrats will
have to invest heavily into the race, which will take away from their efforts
in other states.
As a side note, all projections are based on a combination
of factors, mainly current polling, but also historic trends, cash on hand, and
the current national environment. Nationwide, the generic congressional ballot
polling suggests Democrats will win the popular vote by 7-8%, which would very
likely mean they’d easily win the House. However, Senate Democrats fighting in
the numerous red states won’t enjoy that same margin. As it currently stands,
Republicans will likely hold between 51 and 53 seats in the upper chamber by
January. In order for the Democrats to have a better shot of winning the
Senate, they will need to move some of the toss-up races into the ‘lean
Democratic’ column. I’ll be sure to update the Senate forecast as the election
grows nearer.
