Who Will Really Benefit from Super Tuesday?

As March 6^th (better known as Super Tuesday) has quickly approached, candidates are already spinning what constitutes a “win” for the day.  The Romney camp claims that the only thing that should matter at this point are the number of delegates won, while Rick Santorum is looking to see who wins the most states. 

I’d like to evaluate each of those assumptions to project which candidate will actually come out of Super Tuesday with the momentum to either seal the deal (in Mr. Romney’s case) or keep the contests alive and exciting (in Mr. Santorum’s case).  To do this, I will look at Super Tuesday by a state-by-state (and in some cases district-by-district) and tally the delegates based on assumptions made from polling, geography, and demographic strengths and weaknesses of each candidate.

Georgia (76)

If you’ve been listening to any of the chatter on cable-news, you would think that Ohio is the biggest prize in terms of number of delegates awarded today, but you would be wrong.  Georgia will award 76 delegates.  Like in all of the states, some delegates will be awarded proportionally, others by winning or coming in second place in congressional districts. Finally party leaders choose the remaining 3 delegates, and those delegates will be placed in a “tossup” column at the end of the article. 

Part of the reason Georgia has not received much press attention is because its native son, Newt Gingrich, is outpolling the other candidates by wide margins.  Still, the battle in Georgia is for second place. 

Georgia	Current Vote Share	Expected Vote Share	P.A.D.	C.D.D.	Total
Romney	0.238	0.25585	12	9	21
Santorum	0.182	0.19565	0	2	2
Gingrich	0.433	0.465475	21	17	38
Paul	0.072	0.0774	0	0	0

Ohio (66)

Ohio, as stated above, has become the big prize for the candidates on Super Tuesday.  Both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are statistically tied in the polls leading up to today’s race.  However, Mr. Santorum failed to qualify for all of the delegates.  Therefore, even if Santorum were to win the popular vote in Ohio, he is still very likely to lose the delegate race, as projected below.

Ohio	Current Vote Share	Expected Vote Share	P.A.D.	C.D.D.	Total
Romney	0.33	0.35013	8	36	44
Santorum	0.329	0.349069	7	12	19
Gingrich	0.16	0.16976	0	0	0
Paul	0.12	0.12732	0	0	0

Tennessee (58)

For a hot second, it seemed as though Rick Santorum would run away with Tennessee.  However, since his win in Michigan, Romney has gained a lot of ground at the expense of Mr. Santorum.  It’s certainly plausible that Tennessee could be the one southern state (excluding Virginia) Mr. Romney wins today.

Tennessee	Current Vote Share	Expected Vote Share	P.A.D.	C.D.D.	Total
Romney	0.287	0.30135	10	13	23
Santorum	0.323	0.33915	10	14	24
Gingrich	0.247	0.25935	8	0	8
Paul	0.093	0.09765	0	0	0

Virginia (49)

Only Mr. Romney and Mr. Paul qualified for the ballot in Virginia, and because of the way Virginia proportions its delegates, it is unlikely that Ron Paul will get more than a few of them.

Virginia	Current Vote Share	Expected Vote Share	P.A.D.	C.D.D.	Total
Romney	0.69	0.7245	9	33	42
Paul	0.26	0.273	4	0	4

Oklahoma (43)

Unlike Tennessee, Rick Santorum is still holding strong in Oklahoma, and has a chance to win a true majority of the vote.  However, there has been limited polling done in Oklahoma, so any projection could have a potentially high error.

Oklahoma	Current Vote Share	Expected Vote Share	P.A.D.	C.D.D.	Total
Romney	0.18	0.198	5	0	5
Santorum	0.43	0.473	13	15	28
Gingrich	0.22	0.242	7	0	7
Paul	0.07	0.077	0	0	0

Idaho (32)

Unfortunately, Idaho has not had any polling.  Because it is a caucus state, it is possible that Ron Paul will do well.  However, Mitt Romney won the state in 2008, it has a relatively high Mormon population, and it borders Washington, which Romney just won Saturday.  However, in Mr. Santorum’s favor is the fact that Idaho tends to lean very socially conservative, and the way the vote is counted in Idaho (a new round of voting takes place after a candidate is eliminated until one candidate reaches 50%) could benefit Santorum from gaining Mr. Gingrich’s votes.

Idaho	Current Vote Share	Expected Vote Share	2nd Round	3rd Round	P.A.D.	C.D.D.	Total
Romney	NA	0.4	0.418	0.521	15	0	15
Santorum	NA	0.33	0.398	0.479	14	0	14
Gingrich	NA	0.09	0.000	0	0	0	0
Paul	NA	0.18	0.185	0	0	0	0

North Dakota (28)

North Dakota has also not seen any polling.  However, due to its proximity to Minnesota, which Rick Santorum won with 45%, and its overall rural makeup, it’s probable that the results will be favorable to Mr. Santorum.  However, Ron Paul could also be expected to do well, as North Dakota is a caucus state, which tends to favor Ron Paul’s enthusiastic supporters.  Overall, I determined the expected vote share in ND by starting at Minnesota’s vote share and adding a bit more to Mr. Romney due to his overall rise in national polling.

North Dakota	Current Vote Share	Expected Vote Share	P.A.D.	Total
Romney	NA	0.25	7	7
Santorum	NA	0.39	11	11
Gingrich	NA	0.07	2	2
Paul	NA	0.29	8	8

Alaska (27)

Alaska is a quirky state, as it does not always follow the national trend.  In 2008, Romney won the caucuses, but Romney has not performed too well in caucus states in 2012.  Ron Paul is much more likely to do well, but Rick Santorum also has a shot to win if the evangelical base there coalesces around him.  No candidate has visited Alaska, so predicting this state is tough.

Alaska	Current Vote Share	Expected Vote Share	P.A.D.	Total
Romney	NA	0.33	8	8
Santorum	NA	0.22	5	5
Gingrich	NA	0.08	2	2
Paul	NA	0.37	9	9

Vermont (17)

Finally, we get to Vermont, the state with the least number of delegates in play.  There has been only one poll conducted in Vermont, and it is a bit old, from the time when Santorum was having his surge.  Mr. Romney likely has regained a bit of that lead, and the current vote share reflects that.

Vermont	Current Vote Share	Expected Vote Share	P.A.D.	Total
Romney	0.36	0.4068	9	9
Santorum	0.27	0.3051	5	5
Gingrich	0.1	0.113	0	0
Paul	0.14	0.1582	0	0

In conclusion, it will most assuredly be a good night for Mr. Romney.  He will win at least 3 of the 10 states, and he has an outside chance to win 7.  Either way, he will walk away with a very clear majority of delegates.  Mr. Santorum, conversely, could have either a very poor night (especially if he loses Ohio and others by larger than expected margins) or he could spin it to be a very good night.  He could potentially win 5 of the 10 states, in which case he would win more states than Mr. Romney.

Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, however, will not (and are not expecting) to do well tonight.  Gingrich performs well in the south, and that’s about it; his appeal is very regional.  Paul performs well in caucus states, but he doesn’t have enough base support to win any of them, save perhaps Alaska. 

Total	Romney	Santorum	Gingrich	Paul	Tossup
Delegates	212	110	57	21	30
States	3	2	1	0	4

So to answer the question I originally posed, I’ll say that it can’t really be answered yet.  Romney will certainly do well in the delegate count.  However, if Santorum wins Ohio, he will surely spin the win as a referendum on Romney and claim that Romney, with all his money, can’t even win the swing state of Ohio.  Paul and Gingrich likely will not drop out after tonight, as they don’t have anything to lose by staying in the race.  But if anything has held true throughout this election cycle, it is to expect the unexpected.