Despite Conventional Wisdom, GOP Still Unlikely to Take the Senate

In the past few weeks, there has been much talk about how the Democrats are at serious risk of losing the Senate in 2014.  The nightmare scenario is such that millions of Americans lose their insurance due to Obamacare next year, premiums actually rise, and the public directs its anger towards the Democrats, who passed the bill into law.

While this scenario is certainly plausible, it isn’t, at this point, probable.  According to polls, even the most vulnerable Democratic Senators are at least still competitive with their GOP challengers.  For example, a poll released Monday by the conservative Citizens United Political Victory Fund showed Arkansas’ Mark Pryor, who most consider the most vulnerable Democrat up for re-election, to be trailing his rival by only seven points.  Most other incumbents are either running ahead of their challengers or at least in a dead heat.

Additionally, Democrats have an opportunity to pick up at least two seats currently held by the GOP.  In Georgia, Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss is retiring, causing what could be a very bloody primary on the GOP side, while Michelle Nunn, daughter of former popular Senator Sam Nunn, will likely coast to the nomination. 

In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell is still the favorite to win the general election.  But should his GOP challenger gain some traction, the primary could bruise McConnell enough to allow Allison Lundergan Grimes to win in November.

The Democrats’ main problem is with its members who are retiring.  Of the five Democrats retiring, including Tom Harkin (IA), Carl Levin (MI), Max Baucus (MT), Tim Johnson (SD), and Jay Rockefeller (WV), three of them are in states Mitt Romney carried handily.  In Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, the party’s candidates are all running behind their Republican counterparts.  And in Michigan and Iowa, the Democrat in the race is running only slightly ahead of their GOP rival. 

Unfortunately for Democrats, unlike in 2010 and 2012, the Tea Party is unlikely to play a major role in handing a seat or two back to the Dems.  Most tea party challengers are either in safe Republican states or in a state without a strong Democratic challenger. 

However, there are a couple possible exceptions.  As previously mentioned, the competitive GOP primary in Georgia could yield a more extreme Tea Party candidate, giving the likely Democratic nominee, Michelle Nunn, a leg up in the race.  In Alaska, Tea Party favorite Joe Miller is running again.  In 2010, he famously won the primary and was then beat by the incumbent GOP Senator, Lisa Murkowski, by write-in. 

Given all of these factors as well as analyzing polling, I have developed a model for predicting the number of seats Democrats will hold after the 2014 election.  As is any prediction, it is just that.  It is based on current polling, state voting history, as well as intangibles I feel may affect each race.  Below is a graph indicating the likelihood for Democrats to end up with each number of seats. 

As it currently stands, the most likely scenario is one which the upper chamber is evenly divided, with each party holding 50 seats.  This technically counts as Democrats “holding” the Senate, as Vice President Joe Biden would be able to cast any tie-breaking votes. 

43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54	55	56	57	58
0	0	1	4	7	20	34	48	43	29	15	7	2	0	0	0
0	0	0.476	1.905	3.333	9.524	16.19	22.86	20.48	13.81	7.143	3.333	0.952	0	0	0

In fact, as you can see above, despite the Democrats facing some strong headwinds, they still remain a 2 to 1 (or about 69%) favorite for keeping the Senate.  That is not to say the GOP won’t be able to overcome those odds.  Should the Democrats’ nightmare scenario play out, the chances of Republicans taking the chamber will only likely increase.

Again, all of this will of course change as the midterms near and as we get more polling on each race.  As I gets more information, Battleground270 will continue to update these predictions until November.