As it turns out,
quite a lot. The economy could go into a
recession. Israel could attack North
Korea. Gas prices could shoot to $6 a
gallon. Plenty of things could go wrong
between now and November. It could turn
out that a ruling against Obamacare might not be all that bad, at least
politically.
Enthusiasm
To begin, if you
have watched any of the GOP debates this cycle, you’ll probably notice that the
issue the candidates campaigned on most (besides perhaps the economy) is
President Obama’s health care reform.
Republican voters loathe the bill, and that one issue alone is enough
for them to hold their nose to vote for Mr. Romney.
But what happens
if the GOP’s primary motivation to vote is suddenly taken away? If the court
strikes down the individual mandate, why do Republican voters need to elect
someone who has spent the last year campaigning to repeal it?
Of course, I am
not saying that GOP voters will stay home in November. However, without the rally-cry that is the
individual mandate, it is fair to say that the enthusiasm for electing Mr.
Romney (which is already quite low for a presumed Presidential Nominee) would
certainly decline.
Enthusiasm is
what gets supporters to canvass for the candidate, make phone calls, and above
all, get out the vote efforts. A drop in
enthusiasm for a candidate (or party) can mean the difference of a couple
percentage points at the polls (as witnessed among core groups of President
Obama’s constituency during the midterm election).
Further, if the
Court were to strike down the individual mandate, liberal groups could become
more enthusiastic towards re-electing the President. After all, if the individual mandate is
struck down, it is extremely unlikely that universal health care, a dream of
liberals for generations, would ever become reality.
Republicans
Would Own Health Care
As James
Carville recently (and brilliantly) pointed out, if the conservative majority
of the Supreme Court strikes down the heart of Obamacare, conservatives would
then “own” the issue. Therefore, if
costs and premiums continue to increase, as more and more people are uninsured,
the Democrats can (unfairly or not) easily blame the Republicans.
Will costs and
number of uninsured rise? Probably,
judging by the trend-line. Would they
have risen if the Affordable Care Act had survived? It doesn’t matter. Counterfactuals rarely influence perceptions
in politics. People will be caring about
what is happening at the present, and they will be looking for someone to
blame.
The Mandate is
Unpopular
The individual
mandate is by far the most unpopular part of President Obama’s health care
reform bill. In fact, most other parts
of the bill are widely popular among the electorate.
President Obama,
after spending a year trying to pass the bill certainly couldn’t now come out
against the individual mandate… but the Supreme Court can. If this were to happen, the President could
spend his time campaigning on the remaining part of the bill that is popular.
The Market May
React Favorably
One of the
biggest claims conservatives have made over the past two years is that
businesses aren’t hiring because of “uncertainty” due to Obamacare and them
having to cover all their employees. If
that argument is true, then overturning the ACA should spur an increase in
hiring among businesses, particularly small businesses.
Everybody knows
the election will be decided based mainly on the shape of the economy come
election day. The past 4 months have
produced high job growth, which has inflated President Obama’s job approval
ratings. If businesses were to begin
hiring in mass, the economy could grow beyond economists’ current expectations
while simultaneously lowering the unemployment rate.
As Nate Silver
pointed out on his blog, if job growth were to remain constant or even
increased from where it currently stands, President Obama would be a heavy
favorite to win in November.
Conclusion
This is not all
to say that overturning the mandate will only positively affect Mr. Obama. If it is overturned, President Obama will
surely be bludgeoned for spending much of his first year passing a law that
turned out to be unconstitutional.
However, it is not all doom and gloom for the President. Politically, it’s just quite possible that
the President could win if he loses.
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