Thursday, August 30, 2018

No, Democrats Will Likely NOT Win the Senate This Year


Donald Trump’s Presidency has offered the Democrats a rare chance – and one they haven’t had in years – to take back the House in 2018. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight is currently projecting that Democrats have about a 73% likelihood (or about a 5 in 7 chance) that Democrats will win back the House in November.

However, the picture isn’t so rosy for Democrats in the Senate. Due to a daunting map this year in which Democrats are defending ten seats in states Trump won in 2016 (and Republicans are only defending one such seat Clinton won - Nevada), it is very likely that Democrats will have fewer Senators in their caucus in 2019 than presently.

The below graph shows my current projection for the number of seats Democrats will hold after the 2018 midterms. In order to have a majority in the Senate, they must have 51 seats, as Vice President Mike Pence would be the tie-breaker should the chamber have a 50/50 split. That leaves the Democrats with only about a 5% likelihood of winning the Senate, even in what is looking like a gangbuster year for the party nationwide.


In the 10 democratic states Donald Trump won in 2016, four are considered “Toss-ups” (Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota), two are “Leaning Democratic” (Montana and West Virginia), one is “Likely Democratic” (Wisconsin), and three are “Safe Democratic” (Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania). Of the seats Republicans are defending, only three are rated as “Toss-ups” (Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee), and one is rated as “Likely Republican” (Texas).

To gain the majority, Democrats will need to net two seats, which means they could conceivably win all three Republican-held toss-ups and only lose one of their own, or they would have to keep all of their own seats while still picking up two Republican-held seats. Either of those scenarios is unlikely, given the heavily-Republican margins the states in the Democratic toss-ups. Trump won both Indiana and Missouri by 19 points and North Dakota by 36 points. And while he only won Florida by about 1%, the current multi-millionaire and self-financing Republican Governor Rick Scott is running against Senator Nelson. In order to compete against all that cash from Scott, Democrats will have to invest heavily into the race, which will take away from their efforts in other states.

As a side note, all projections are based on a combination of factors, mainly current polling, but also historic trends, cash on hand, and the current national environment. Nationwide, the generic congressional ballot polling suggests Democrats will win the popular vote by 7-8%, which would very likely mean they’d easily win the House. However, Senate Democrats fighting in the numerous red states won’t enjoy that same margin. As it currently stands, Republicans will likely hold between 51 and 53 seats in the upper chamber by January. In order for the Democrats to have a better shot of winning the Senate, they will need to move some of the toss-up races into the ‘lean Democratic’ column. I’ll be sure to update the Senate forecast as the election grows nearer.