Sunday, April 29, 2012

Who Won the Week? (April 22-28)

This week, both Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney attempted to win favor with a key demographic, one that went overwhelmingly for the President in 2008: the youth vote.  On Tuesday afternoon, President Obama held separate college campus rallies in both North Carolina and later Colorado (which both happen to be swing states).  In each speech, Mr. Obama pushed for Congress to keep interest rates from doubling, essentially creating a wedge issue among the GOP. 

Later that evening, the President appeared on Late Night With Jimmy Fallon again pushing hard for issues affecting college-aged student.  After the interview with Fallon, Obama “slow-jammed” the news, which became an instant hit on Twitter, Facebook, etc.

Perhaps as sign of relenting to the President’s (popular) position, Mitt Romney decided that he, also, backed the extension of low interest rates, though he had seemingly opposed such a measure just a couple months prior during the heated primary. 

The President wasn’t without criticism for making the interest rates an issue in the campaign and also for, well, campaigning, as it seemed.  The Romney campaign, as well as the national GOP condemned the President for essentially campaigning on the taxpayer’s dime.  Further, Speaker Boehner claimed that the issue of interest rates was a manufactured one for the President’s political advantage.

Either way, Barack Obama seems to have laid a trap for the GOP and Mitt Romney.  If Romney were to back the doubling of rates, he could have been portrayed to the youth and their parents as out-of-touch on matters that mattered most to them.  If Mitt Romney were to agree with the President, that would make it difficult for the Congressional GOP to form opposition and allow the President to claim that he was able to keep interest rates from doubling.  Either way, Obama wins.

The only other significant event of last week came last night with the annual White House Correspondent’s Dinner, at which the President is to basically give a stand-up comedy skit.  The night provides the President with an easy venue to come off appearing down-to-earth and funny. 

Many remember last year’s WHCD when Obama roasted Donald Trump; this year was only different in the recipient.  President Obama was able to poke-fun at Romney’s wealth, his education, and of course, Seamusgate.  The event was not without jokes made about Mr. Obama, but none will survive the news-media cycles like the jibes at Romney.

Now, to polling: The RealClearPolitics average actually has the margin between the two candidates at exactly the same as last week.  While minor changes week to week should be interpreted as just statistical noise, in the media, the lack of change could represent a story on how Obama’s recent momentum has stalled. 

Again, be mindful, as I pointed out in my last post, that polling this far out from the election should not be seen as a predictor, but just as a snapshot in time that has the potential to measure momentum. 

It should be noted that Romney didn’t necessarily have a bad week; the President just had a pretty good week.  Looking forward, it should be noted that this upcoming week mark the one-year anniversary of Osama Bin Laden’s death, so it would not be unreasonable to expect to see the President’s poll numbers rise in a reflection of this.  However, it will also be interesting to see if Mr. Obama and his campaign over-politicize the assassination.

Who Won the Week?  President Obama

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Polls Apart

We are now nearing the six-month mark until the 2012 election, and polls are giving President Obama a slight edge in the head-to-head match-ups.  However, historically, does this slight edge mean anything for predicting the final outcome?

To find the answer, I first gathered and averaged polling data for the period between April 1 and May 10 of the election year.  The table, below, lists those results and highlights the candidate who went on to win.

Barack Obama
John McCain
Margin
45.71
45.14
0.56
George Bush
John Kerry

45
42.43
2.57
George Bush
Al Gore

47.5
42
5.5
Bill Clinton
Bob Dole

54.17
40.67
13.5
Bill Clinton
George Bush

40.5
47.75
-7.25
George Bush
Michael Dukakis

42.75
44.5
-1.75
Ronald Reagan
Walter Mondale

51
39
12
Ronald Reagan
Jimmy Carter

41.67
46
-4.33
Jimmy Carter
Gerald Ford

47.5
40
7.5

Judging by this chart, candidates who were up (by any margin) six months prior to the election ended up winning the election 67% of the time (though, technically George W. Bush lost the popular vote in November 2000, putting the success rate at 56%).  Nonetheless, the sample size is so small and the margin of polling so sporadic that this percentage really has no predictive value.

Thus, I decided to look at both the six-month polling and the final result in hope that there could be some correlation between the two.  Again, nothing.  If anything, the results were even less extrapolative.

Barack Obama
John McCain
Margin
Election Margin
Difference
45.71
45.14
0.57
7.2
6.63
George Bush
John Kerry



45
42.43
2.57
2.4
-0.17
George Bush
Al Gore



47.5
42
5.5
-0.5
-6
Bill Clinton
Bob Dole



54.17
40.67
13.5
8.5
-5
Bill Clinton
George Bush



40.5
47.75
-7.25
5.5
12.75
George Bush
Michael Dukakis



42.75
44.5
-1.75
7.7
9.45
Ronald Reagan
Walter Mondale



51
39
12
18.2
6.2
Ronald Reagan
Jimmy Carter



41.67
46
-4.33
9.7
14.03
Jimmy Carter
Gerald Ford



47.5
40
7.5
2.1
-5.4

Put graphically,





Again, none of this data is helpful.  One main takeaway is that the least square fit (LSF) for the second graph is at least parallel; meaning the rate of the margin of the eventual win over time is at least similar to that of poll deviations.  A better look at this trend is exemplified if we take the absolute value of the poll deviations, giving the graph below:



Nevertheless, the data points are so sporadic that the LSF should be seen as more random than fixed. 

My next idea was to see if perhaps polls were more accurate for one party to take office or if there was an incumbent trend.  Unfortunately, there is neither. 

Finally, a note on the overall accuracy of polls; when averaging the margin of difference between the polls and the election results, polls were 3.61% off (for the eventual winner).  When taking the average of the difference margin for years with correct and incorrect polling, the polls were off 0.45% and 7.56%, respectively.  Again, this is not saying much because the data points are so diverse.

In conclusion, neither President Obama nor Mitt Romney should read too far into these current polls.  Sure, there are benefits to being ahead in the polls early in the process.   A candidate can use that information to leverage better fundraising in an inevitability strategy.  Still, the candidate is in no way inevitable.

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Who Won the Week (Apr 15-21)

This past week certainly has not brought about any major developments in the campaign.  If anything, the two candidates still seem to be in the same position as they were last week: stuck in the game to define one another.  Mitt Romney is attempting to paint President Obama as being out of his league, and Mr. Obama is doing his best to remind voters just how far right Romney has placed himself, and in doing so, Obama never ceases to mention all the flip-flopping Romney has done to get there. 

But while the news was sparse this week, there were a couple of flare-ups, first of which came from Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer.  In an interview, the Governor said that the reason Mitt Romney has trouble talking about his father’s upbringing and heritage (George Romney was born in Mexico) is because it would remind people of the polygamist community. 

While the White House certainly had to distance itself from Schweitzer, it is probably safe to assume that the flap doesn’t’ help Romney.  It seems as though Mitt Romney has decided that he should not embrace his religion and should instead hope that it never gets mentioned.  Therefore, the Romney team was likely very unhappy (from a political and personal perspective) to hear about the Governor’s comments.

In other wacky news this week, a passage from President Obama’s book went viral.  Apparently, as a six-year-old child living in Indonesia, Barack Obama had eaten dog.

What is the significance of this, you might ask?  By now, Mitt Romney’s story of strapping his dog to the top of the roof of his car is well known.  The belief then, was that this story about the President once eating dog would neutralize the “dog vote” and it would help Romney. 

However, I think it played out somewhat differently.  Sure, animal lovers probably won’t be thrilled that the President has eaten dog, but the issue did more to just bring up the issue of dogs, including Romney’s dog.  The more people are reminded of Mitt Romney’s dog Seamus, the worse it will probably be for Mr. Romney.  In the end, neither candidate was probably benefited from the story.

In a bit of good news for the President, the Obama re-election team announced that it took in $46.4M in March, nearly quadrupling the amount Mitt Romney raised during the same period.  While lower than his 2008 haul, the amount helps to put the President at a significant cash on hand advantage: $104M vs. $10M.  As the primary is essentially over, it is likely Romney’s fundraising pace will increase, but the same could be said for Obama’s.

Finally, to polling: a slew of new polls were released this week showing a very tight general election matchup between the President and Mr. Romney.  Though Barack Obama is up a bit from last week in RealClearPolitics’ average (+3.3% vs. +2.4%), the change is more likely to be statistical noise than a clear shift towards the President. 

However, hidden in many of those polls are breakdowns of voter groups and whom they support.  While the President is not performing well among white men, Mitt Romney is performing very poorly among latinos and women, as I noted in yesterday’s post.  In short, Romney cannot win the general election if he does not improve among these two key groups.

Who won the week?  President Obama

Friday, April 20, 2012

VEEP

Now that Mr. Romney has essentially secured the GOP nomination, the political chatter class is in a tizzy about who will be his running mate.  Between now and Romney’s announcement there will likely be thousands of news and opinion articles speculating who he will put on the ticket, and this will be one of them. 

My objective is to pick out a few candidates who I think would be most beneficial for Romney to choose and to explain why.

But before I do that, let’s look at timing of the announcement.  I have heard speculation that Mitt Romney may decide to announce his running mate sooner rather than later.  While Mr. Romney has that choice, it is extremely unlikely he will do it. 

The announcement of a running mate is like a breath of fresh air; a spark that can rejuvenate a campaign.   A running mate gives the public (especially swing voters) a reason to give the candidate a second look. 

Just as Sarah Palin did in 2008, the official VP selection has the potential to give a jolt of energy to a campaign that may be flailing.  To put it in automotive terms, a NASCAR driver isn’t going to make a pit stop on the fourth lap.  They are going to do it when the fuel is low and the tires are worn.  Similarly, the Romney campaign will choose to take their pit stop when the fuel is low.

Also, the announcement of a running mate invites vetting.  This scrutiny comes from the media, the opposition, and the public.  The sooner Mitt Romney announces his VP pick, the sooner that person’s favorabilities are likely to drop.  Imagine if Sarah Palin had been selected in June instead of August.  Just.  Imagine…

The only benefit of Mr. Romney choosing a running mate sooner rather than later would come if he chose a well-known public official who is similarly a favorite of the Republican grassroots.  The candidate would need to be well known already in order to diffuse the possibility of something coming out that would either hurt or disqualify the individual in the eyes of the public. 

The main goal of selecting a darling of the right early in the election season is to raise money.  It is no secret that President Obama’s team is hoping to raise $750+ M, and even though Romney will have various GOP-backed super PACs, it is always more beneficial in a campaign to be able to make your own decisions on where money is going and how it is being spent.  A selection like this would surely energize conservative donors to support Romney’s campaign. 

However, with the possible exception of Mike Huckabee, there isn’t anyone I can think of who clearly fits that description.  There are plenty of “severely conservative” possibilities, but none have been vetted or are well known by the media and the general public, so let’s move on.

Traditionally, with the exception of the obvious “must do no harm” rule, there have been four strategies for selecting a running mate.  They are what I call the State Strategy, the Constituency Strategy, the Base Strategy, and the Policy Strategy.  All have been used before, and an ideal candidate would fit into all four strategies.


State Strategy

In the age of increased polarization and slim victories, the State Strategy has become increasingly popular, at least in the eyes of pundits.  However, so far it seems to be a strategy more employed by Democrats than Republicans. 

In 1992, Bill Clinton (in an arguably genius move) opted for a southern state strategy by picking Al Gore as his Vice President.  Not only did Clinton win Gore’s home state of Tennessee, but he also carried other traditionally red states such as West Virginia, Kentucky, Georgia, and Louisiana. 

Most recently, Barack Obama’s pick of Joe Biden could be seen as fitting into the State Strategy.  Along with strengthening his numbers with white working class men, a key demographic in Pennsylvania and Ohio, Mr. Biden also provided Obama with something like a hometown pick.  Biden, originally from Scranton, Pennsylvania and representing neighboring Delaware, could arguably be credited for Obama’s win in Pennsylvania (though the margin was large enough there that it is likely Obama would have won without Joe on the ticket). 

For Mitt Romney, there are plenty of candidates who would fit into the state strategy.  Marco Rubio would help out in Florida; Bob McDonnell, the popular governor of Virginia, would surely be an asset in his home state, along with neighboring North Carolina; Ohio Senator Rob Portman has also frequently been mentioned as a possibility.  In recent elections, Paul Ryan’s Wisconsin has been a swing state, and Susana Martinez, governor of New Mexico, has also been listed as a potential VP. 

It is likely Romney will put much weight on the State Strategy, given President Obama’s perceived lead in the current electoral vote count (AP has Obama: 242, Romney 188).  However, grabbing one or two states isn’t enough to get to 270; Romney will also need to check some of the other strategic boxes.


Constituency Strategy

The Constituent Strategy is that which places a heavy emphasis on improving the numbers of a particular constituency in the electorate.  For example, 2008 was very heavy on the constituent strategy.  Obama’s pick of Biden arguably helped Obama  (the first African American nominee of a major party) with white voters who were perhaps uneasy about Obama’s race. 

Pennsylvania CNN exit polls from both the primary and general election in 2008 reveal how much the gap was closed:  Obama received only 37.2% of the white vote in the Pennsylvania primary.  However, he would won 48% of the white vote come Election Day in November.  As a quick disclaimer, one cannot assume that the vote in the primary will transfer directly to general election vote share, yet it is clear that in the primary fight with Clinton, working class white voters were seen as a clear vulnerability.

The same could be argued for McCain’s reason for picking Sarah Palin as his running mate, though this time with gender in mind.  As has been well documented, specifically by Mark Halperin and John Heilemann’s book Game Change, McCain’s advisers saw a great benefit in choosing a woman to accompany the maverick Senator on the ticket. 

Initially, this move proved to be a clear winner for the McCain campaign: before the pick, McCain was trailing Obama 50-42 among white women; after the pick, that margin had reversed to McCain winning the segment 53-41.  Had that margin persisted until November, it is likely McCain would be occupying in the Oval Office (Mr. Obama ended up winning white women 51-48).

The Constituency Strategy is likely to also be very appealing to Mr. Romney this year.  As has been greatly reported in the past couple months, Mitt is trailing the President badly among women and Hispanics. 

Luckily for Romney, there are a few candidates who would have the potential to close those constituency gaps.  Marco Rubio has been the most mentioned Hispanic candidate.  Not only is he a son of Cuban immigrants, Rubio is currently advocating a version of the Democrat’s DREAM Act.  While the move could help Romney among Latino voters, any kind of advocacy for citizenship from the GOP has shown to be a non-starter in the party. 

Also, talk has been heating up of Susana Martinez.  Not only is she of Hispanic descent; she would also potentially help Mitt with women.  Other women possibilities include Nikki Haley of South Carolina, Kelly Ayote of New Hampshire, Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and Arizona Governor Jan Brewer.  Whereas Haley could help with women and potentially other minorities (she is Indian-American), the selection of Brewer would likely have an inverse effect on Hispanic voters because of her strong support of anti-immigration laws in her home state.


Base Strategy

Pundits like to say that elections are won or lost in the center; the candidate with the higher share of independent voters is the one who will win.  Therefore, it would seem like a no-brainer to pick a running mate who was more towards the ideological center.

However, the truth is that campaigns are not just built by a few people.  It takes thousands of volunteers and hours of time and energy to register voters, solicit donations, and build an infrastructure that will take full advantage of the turnout on Election Day.  This work is done almost exclusively by partisans.

Again looking back at 2008, it seems as though Sarah Palin fit into the Base Strategy.  It was no secret that John McCain was bemoaned by the right wing of his party, and there was little enthusiasm for his candidacy by anyone, specifically conservatives. 

Such as it is for Mitt Romney.  No one seems to truly love him, and the GOP base certainly does not.  There is no doubt that most of true Republicans will still vote for Romney, yet they may not be as active doing so in campaigning and volunteering for him. 

Because of the 2010 Tea Party wave, there are certainly a large number of candidates who are well regarded among conservative Republicans and nearly anyone Romney could pick would be perceived to be to the right of him.  The problem with many of those choices is that most of them are just not ready for prime time on the national stage.  Again, Marco Rubio is a rising star of the right, as is Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, Bob McDonnell, and even Rick Santorum. 


Policy Strategy

The Policy Strategy places heavy emphasis on key policy credentials that the person at the top of the ticket may lack.  These typically include foreign policy, economic policy, and social policy.

The clearest example of the Policy Strategy being employed by a Presidential nominee was in Obama’s choice of Biden.  Despite Mr. Obama having very high foreign policy credentials among his base (for being very outspoken about the Iraq War), swing voters still saw him as much of a foreign policy lightweight.  There, in retrospect, the selection of Joe Biden, the (at the time) Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was as beneficial as it was predictable.
Because foreign policy is likely to not be a huge factor in the 2012 elections, it is unlikely Mitt Romney will place much emphasis on it, despite his own lack of experience in foreign affairs.  One could see Romney choosing someone with strong conservative social policy credentials, as he has in the past supported abortion rights, gay rights, and gun control.  However, this would be something that would not appeal to the independent voters who Romney must win. 

If the Policy Strategy is used at all, it will likely be to double down on economic policy, with which Mr. Romney is already perceived to be very strong.  There is little doubt the economy will be the central theme in the fall, and having the ability to have two economic heavyweights could prove to be a huge asset. 

Unfortunately for Mitt Romney, there are relatively few politicians who would fit the bill.  Paul Ryan and Mitch Daniels are certainly the most plausible candidates, but after them, the list is slim pickings.  One could argue that Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman would be great choices… if the former hadn’t shown his political IQ in the debates and the other wasn’t to the left of Mr. Romney.  In all reality, the Policy Strategy will likely be the option given the least weight from Romney’s advisers.


So Who Will It Be?

I’ve thrown out a lot of names, and there are some names that didn’t even get a mention yet are probably on the list such as John Thune (SD) and Tim Pawlenty (MN).  Romney’s goal will be to check as many strategy boxes as possible.  After all, Joe Biden fit into three of the four strategies in 2008.  With that said, here is my top five picks, in order:


1.) Marco Rubio:  Not only does Rubio likely swing Florida to Romney, his Latino background would likely help the GOP gain on that key demographic in the Southwest, possibly denying Obama wins in Colorado, Nevada, and even New Mexico.  Further, he is a huge star in of the right wing, which would excite the party in the same way Sarah Palin did.  Romney would just need to make sure Rubio is more prepared than the former GOP VP nominee.

2.) Condoleezza Rice:  I realize that Mrs. Rice does not check as many boxes as perhaps others.  In her case, she doesn’t need to.  Rice is a well-regarded former Secretary of State who continued to have very strong approval ratings even in Bush’s final year of office.  She would provide the Romney team with a woman with superb foreign policy credentials who has already been thoroughly vetted by the public.  Further, she may provide to a small margin of African Americans a reason to vote for the Republican ticket, which would hurt Obama in states like Virginia and North Carolina.  If Romney were to make an early announcement, it should be for announcing Rice.

3.) Bob McDonnell:  Governor McDonnell endorsed Romney early and would likely help Romney take Virginia and North Carolina with his current approval rating at 53%.  Further, he would probably excite the base, but at a cost: Romney’s approval among women may further erode as Gov. McDonnell was recently supportive of the invasive ultrasound procedure proposed by the VA legislature. 

4.) Susana Martinez:  Governor Martinez certainly checks some boxes.  Not only is she Hispanic, she is also a woman.  Mr. Romney must improve his numbers among both constituencies.  Further, she is popular in her home state of New Mexico and would help Romney with not only winning her state, but also Colorado and Nevada, with their larger Latino populations. 

5.) Paul Ryan:  Despite Ryan authoring the so-called “Ryan Budget Plan”, which is reviled by Democrats, Paul Ryan still has a shot at being Romney’s VP.  He is young, doubles down on economic policy, and is very well regarded among conservatives.  However, even though Romney has endorsed Ryan’s budget, Mr. Ryan may still be deemed too politically volatile to put on the ticket.