Therefore, with the fate
of the Presidential election looking more and more like a toss-up, the Senate
races are becoming much more important for each of the parties. Today, I will break down each race and
attempt to project the most likely outcome for November.
The Democrats and the
Republicans have almost the same share of their respective seats declared
“safe”, with the GOP having 5/10 and the Dems 12/22. However, to complicate problems for the
Democrats, they must defend 22 seats this cycle compared to only 10 for the
Republicans. Let’s begin with the seats
each respective party is likely to keep.
John
Barrasso-WY: Mr. Barrasso hasn’t served in
the Senate long, but Wyoming hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since
1970.
Tom Carper-DE: There hasn’t been any general
election polling in the state, but it is safe to say that Mr. Carper will be
re-elected in the Democratic stronghold that is Delaware.
Maria Cantwell-WA: Washington State has been
trending more Democratic for years, and public polling shows that Cantwell
enjoys large support in the state.
Bob Casey-PA: Everyone expected this race to be much closer
than it is. However, Republicans ended
up with a lackluster candidate in Tom Smith, and Casey enjoys double-digit
leads over his opponent.
Ben Cardin-MD: Cardin is finishing his first
term as Senator for Maryland, and the public still really likes him. He has a double-digit lead against the GOP
challenger.
Bob
Corker-TN: Like in Delaware, Tennessee hasn’t seen any
polling, but the fact that President Obama’s name will be at the top of the
ballot and Tennessee’s strong GOP history suggests Mr. Corker has nothing to
worry about.
Diane Feinstein-CA: Mrs. Feinstein has represented
California since 1992 and has never had a truly difficult re-election. The state is solidly Democratic, and the
Republicans haven’t recruited a formidable challenger.
Kirstin Gillibrand-NY: In 2008,
Gillibrand was essentially picked by President Obama to serve the remainder of
Hillary Clinton’s term. Few expected
Gillibrand to be quite the powerhouse she has become, and her polling lead over
her rivals clearly demonstrates her broad popularity in New York.
Orrin
Hatch-UT: Mr. Hatch has been fighting for his political
life all year, but not from a challenging Democrat; he first had to prevail
against insurgent Tea Party backed Dan Liljenquist. If Liljenquist were to have knocked Hatch off
in the primary, Democrats may have at least stood a chance. However, with Hatch running for another term,
they don’t have a prayer at winning the seat.
Kay
Bailey Hutchison-TX: Though the Senator is retiring,
Democrats haven’t fielded a strong challenger to whomever wins the GOP primary
(Dewhurst or Cruz). Further, Texas is
still ruled by Republicans and 2012 won’t be the year to change that.
Amy Klobuchar-MN: Though both of its U.S. Senators
are Democrats, Minnesota’s legislatures are controlled by the Republican Party
and the state has a history of independence.
That is why it is surprising to see Klobuchar polling so well in the
state with only four months to go before the election.
Joe Manchin-WV: This one is something of an anomaly,
and truthfully, I initially overlooked it as a “safe” seat. However, despite how terribly the President
is expected to perform in West Virginia, Mr. Manchin, the Democrat is currently
polling in the mid 70s.
Bob Menendez-NJ: For a bit it seemed as though
Mr. Menendez would have a tough path to re-election, as he isn’t greatly
popular in the state. However, Kyrillos,
the Republican challenger, seems to be even less popular, and, for now,
Menendez is leading by double digits.
Bernie Sanders-VT: This independent Senator from
Vermont is running for yet another term, and all polling shows it is likely
Vermont will give it to him.
Debbie Stabenow-MI: All signs were leading to what
looked like a close race between Mrs. Stabenow and Pete Hoekstra. However, the GOP challenger hasn’t been able
to recover in polling since his widely criticized (and racist) ad in February.
Sheldon Whitehouse-RI: Mr.
Whitehouse isn’t a high-profile Senator, and perhaps this is why he is performing
so well in his state; he trounces each of his potential opponents in
head-to-head matchups.
Roger
Wicker-MS: Mississippi is the last place Democrats will
pick up a seat. Move along. Move along.
The remaining races will
be placed in order with increasing likelihood of changing party:
Daniel Akaka-HI: The retiring Senator is leaving
an open seat and a (small) chance for former Republican Governor Linda Lingle
to take the seat that has long been held by Democrats. However, she will have an uphill climb: the
two Democratic challengers are each leading Mrs. Lingle by about 10%. However, if the primary were to get too
bloody and the party not heals before the election, the former Governor would
have a chance to pull off a major upset.
Sherrod Brown-OH: At the moment, Brown seems to be
in a favorable place. He is leading his
GOP opponent, Josh Mandel, by about 10%, while the Republican has had weeks of
bad press and just doesn’t seem to be ready for the limelight. However, Ohio will be an extremely
competitive state in November, and it is likely the gap will close in the
coming months.
Joe Lieberman-CT: No
sitting Senator has upset both sides of the isle as much as Mr. Lieberman, and
after this year, he will be retiring from politics. The race to succeed him is relatively close,
given Connecticut’s strong Democratic background. Linda McMahon, the candidate who lost to
Richard Blumenthal, is trying her luck again, this time most likely against
Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy. Polling
has the Democrat with a 9-point lead, but Mrs. McMahon has a lot of money and
name recognition that could work to her advantage in the fall. This is one race that could heat up very
quickly and put the Democrats on the defensive.
Jon
Kyl-AZ: Though Mr. Kyl is retiring, Republicans have
a deep bench in Arizona, and Rep. Jeff Flake is currently leading Democratic
challenger and former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona by an average of
about 7%. However, if President Obama is
to invest as heavily in Arizona as some campaign officials are projecting, Mr.
Carmona’s chances at winning could be buoyed, and the Republicans will at least
have to spend money to keep the seat from flipping.
Dick
Lugar-IN: Unlike Senator Hatch of Utah, Mr. Lugar
didn’t survive his primary battle with Richard Mourdock. That is only good news for Democrats, who
have a fairly strong challenger in Joe Donnelly. Whereas Lugar would have likely cruised to
victory, the race between Mourdock and Donnelly is quite literally tied,
according to two polls. However,
President Obama isn’t expected to run nearly as well in Indiana as he did in
2008, and that will likely have down ballot effects on the Democrat. The seat will likely remain in GOP control.
Bill Nelson-FL: Florida is yet again a swing state, and both
Senate candidates will be affected by the Presidential campaign. Currently, Mr. Nelson holds a six-point lead
over rival Connie Mack, but that is likely to narrow as the general election
campaign heats up. Nelson isn’t
overwhelmingly popular in the Sunshine State, though neither is Mack. The Democrats are currently favored to keep
the seat, but a strong performance by Mr. Romney in Florida could spell the end
of Nelson’s political career.
Dean
Heller-NV: Heller hasn’t been Senator for long; he was
appointed just a year ago when Senator John Ensign resigned amid growing
scandal. This seat is competitive
because Nevada as a state is competitive and the Republican Party in the state
is in shambles (remember Sharron Angle circa 2010?). Still, Heller has an average lead of 4.7
points on Democrat Shelley Berkley, one that is likely to shrink, especially if
President Obama wins the state in November.
Look for more polling in the coming months, but for now, it’s advantage
GOP.
Jim Webb-VA: Virginia will likely host the
most competitive Senate race all this cycle.
The race has remained deadlocked for the past 18 months. The winner will most likely be based on who
wins the Presidential election in the state.
If Obama wins Virginia, so does Kaine.
If Romney wins, so does Allen. In
that respect, perhaps it’s constructive to look at recent polling in the state
on the Presidential level. President
Obama is currently leading by about 2.5%, a small lead that could be reversed
with just a couple polls.
Jon Tester-MT: The Republicans in Montana are doing
everything they can to tie Tester to the President, especially on issues like
Obamacare and the economy. However,
Senator Tester is holding on to a miniscule 1-point lead against his Republican
Danny Rehberg. However, Montana is very
likely to swing for Romney in November, and Rehberg will likely benefit from
down-ballot spillover. Tester needs to
build up a lead larger than 1% before November; otherwise, the GOP will likely
flip the seat.
Scott
Brown-MA: There
is no race Democrats and liberals are more excited about (including the
Presidential race) than the Massachusetts Senate race. Liberal champion Elizabeth Warren is facing
off against Senator Brown after he has been in office since early 2010. The race is currently tied, and has been for
a while. However, if polling still has
the race tied by Election Day, Warren wins.
Why? For the same reason Rehberg
wins in Montana: down-ballot spillover and overall state dynamic. Scott Brown will likely be a one-term
Senator.
Kent Conrad-ND: Senator Conrad is yet another retiring
Democrat this cycle, and, initially at least, the seat was expected to be an
easy pickup for Republicans. However,
Heidi Heitkamp, North Dakota’s former Attorney General, has run a smart
campaign and is only down by 3 points to Republican Rick Berg. Again, because North Dakota is expected to
vote for Romney by a large margin, Heitkamp will likely lose unless she can
take the lead in the state by a few points.
Herb Kohl-WI: Former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson is
running in hopes of securing the seat being vacated by Senator Kohl in
November. Currently, polling has
Thompson leading Democratic Representative Tammy Baldwin by about 9%. However, Thompson isn’t guaranteed to survive
the primary, as he has taken a number of positions at odds with the ever-growing
conservative base in the state. If Mark
Neumann were to defeat Thompson in the August primary, it’s jump ball for the
general election. Until then, however,
the GOP is looking like they will pick up the seat.
Clair McCaskill-MO: There is perhaps no greater imperiled
incumbent than Mrs. McCaskill. Not only
is she representing an ever-increasing conservative state, but she has also had
her fair share of scandals and controversies since being elected in 2006. Further, she is a fervent supporter of the
President’s, which does not sit well with many of her constituents. Luckily for her, the GOP primary is downright
bloody. If she survives, it will be because
the Republicans beat themselves up too much to credibly convince the electorate
they would be better than Senator McCaskill.
Olympia
Snow-ME: The Republican Senator from Maine is retiring,
and with the announcement came an even larger one: a three-way race. Former Independent Governor Angus King is
enjoying massive leads in the state against Democrat Cynthia Dill and
Republican Charles Summers. All
indicators lead to a King victory, and the Democrats have essentially given up
on the race, instead all-but supporting King.
Both sides will court him heavily to caucus with them in the Senate, as
he could be the deciding vote on who obtains the majority. He has openly said that he supports Barack
Obama, and most analysts, myself included, believe he will caucus with the
Democrats.
Ben Nelson-NE: After deciding there was no way he would win,
Senator Ben Nelson decided to call it quits.
The GOP will almost assuredly win the seat, as Republican Bruning is
leading the Democrat Bob Kerry by double digits.
To conclude, it seems as
though the Senate will likely be very stable.
According to this analysis, the Democrats will probably pick up two
seats and the GOP will pick up five.
That will give a net +3 seats to the Republicans, dividing the chamber 50-50. However, it is entirely possible that, if
Democrats were to have a really good night, they could net +4 seats, bringing
their majority to 57-43. Conversely, if
the GOP were to truly outperform on election night, it is not improbable for
them to pick up a net of +9 seats, which could sway King to caucus with the
Republicans, bringing their majority to 57-43.
The most likely scenarios are obviously somewhere in the middle, with
50-50 Battleground270’s current projection.
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