It’s
here. It’s finally here. Ok, technically, it’s still two days
away. But after months of (mostly)
negative ads, billions of dollars, dozens of gaffes, and four debates, the
Presidential Election will be decided by just a few people in a few
states.
So
you are now likely wondering, “who will win”?
Throughout this article I will go through state-by-state and give my
projection, as I did yesterday for the Senate.
However, like my projection of the upper chamber, I am only going to
focus on states in which the campaigns have focused their time, money, and
resources this year. Therefore, foregone
conclusions such as New York and Alabama won’t be discussed.
Arizona: No, Arizona is not a swing state. However, in the early part of the summer,
there was a sense that it could have been.
Since Mitt Romney became the GOP presumptive nominee, there have been
two polls in the state putting Obama ahead and three others with the President
only trailing by a couple points.
However, while the state has certainly shifted towards the Democrats
since 2008 when it’s own Senator was running against Obama, the shift is not
likely to be enough. As the demographics
continue to change in Arizona, expect it to become more of a battleground in
future elections.
Final Result: Romney – 53.1
Obama – 46.1
Colorado: Colorado isn’t a “must-win” for either
candidate. However, it represents more
of a “Plan B” if they fail to win Ohio.
Colorado certainly has shifted more towards Democrats in the last few
decades, but if President Obama carries the state, it will be by a much smaller
margin than he did in 2008. Republicans
so far have a small lead in early voting, but according to polling, it seems as
though Obama may have a small amount of momentum going into Election Day. This state will be a nail biter, but I
predict Obama will win.
Final Result: Obama – 49.9
Romney –
48.7
Florida: The Sunshine State, like Ohio, seems to be
thrust in the national spotlight every four years. Yet, in 2012, though the Democrats certainly
haven’t conceded Florida, it really isn’t seen as a must-have for Obama. The opposite is true for Mitt Romney. Simply put, there is little to no path to
victory that doesn’t run through Florida.
Below is the most likely scenario I could conceive for Romney winning
the election without winning Florida.
Either
way, it’s going to be a close election, and there may even be another recount,
but for now, it’s Romney with the (very) slight advantage.
Final Result: Romney – 49.9
Obama – 49.7
Iowa: This is the state that was ultimately
responsible for Barack Obama capturing the Democratic nomination in 2008. It, like Colorado, is more part of a Plan B
coalition. However, polls in the state
have shown a small but consistent lead for the President. Further, Democrats currently hold an 11%
advantage in early voting.
Final Result: Obama – 51.5
Romney –
48.0
Michigan: Polling has been all over the place in
Michigan this year, but despite a few polls showing the race nearly tied, the
Romney campaign has not invested much into the state. It is possible that Romney’s “home state”
advantage was partly nullified because he is running as Massachusetts being his
home state. But the more-likely cause
for President Obama’s consistent lead is four words: “Let Detroit Go
Bankrupt”.
Final Result: Obama – 53.1
Romney –
46.6
Minnesota: Let’s be clear; Minnesota is not a swing
state. It is perhaps the exact inverse
of Arizona, in that if the Romney campaign had invested in it from the
beginning, the race would likely be very close now. That isn’t to say that Minnesota hasn’t
narrowed since 2008, when Obama won it by double digits. The Romney campaign is now making what could
be seen as a political head-fake by throwing some money into the state, but it
is too-little, too-late. Obama will win
Minnesota.
Final Result: Obama – 53.2
Romney –
45.8
Nevada: As I explained in the Senate projection
yesterday, Nevada has been trending democratic for some time now, due mostly to
the huge influx of minorities, mostly Hispanic.
Further, the Republican party in the state is very disorganized, whereas
President Obama’s early vote push and campaign infrastructure seem to give him
the edge.
Final Result: Obama – 52.2
Romney
– 47.3
New
Hampshire: Unlike other states in the
Northeast, New Hampshire has always had more of an independent streak. The state voted for George Bush in 2000 and
Barack Obama in 2008. Now, polls show a
dead heat, with perhaps a slight advantage to the President. New Hampshire is not necessary for Obama, but
its four electoral votes are still seen as highly valuable in the case of
either campaign losing Ohio.
Final Result: Obama – 51.0
Romney –
48.5
New
Mexico: This state has been one of the
most frequently polled non-swing states all cycle. I’m truly not sure why pollsters are so
enamored with New Mexico, especially as it has consistently shown solid leads
for the President. One thing that does make New Mexico interesting is that
its former Governor, Gary Johnson, is running as a libertarian. Polls have shown Johnson pulling about as
much support from Obama as Romney, so there is no real chance of a spoiler
here.
Final Result: Obama – 52.7
Romney –
43.5
Johnson –
3.8
North
Carolina: The Tar Heel State has long
been thought of as a long-shot prize for President Obama, just as Wisconsin
likely is for Republicans. Yes, most
polls there show a very close race, but the President hasn’t led in a poll in
North Carolina since the first debate.
While the President’s early vote operation has been good, he is swimming
against the stronger Republican tide.
North Carolina will likely continue to be a swing state and will
probably continue to shift towards being more friendly towards Democrats, but
it is unlikely Obama will be able to re-create his 2008 surprise victory there.
Final Result: Romney – 50.8
Obama – 48.9
Ohio: Finally, we have come to the Buckeye
State. If you’ve watched the news (or if
you live in Ohio), you would think the two candidates are running for President
of Ohio. It is true that no Republican
has ever won the White House without winning Ohio, and that is unlikely to be changed
in 2012. Mr. Romney’s path to 270
narrows considerably without Ohio. To
win, he would also have to win Colorado, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, in
addition to holding on to Virginia and North Carolina.
President
Obama’s path to 270 isn’t quite as difficult if he loses Ohio, but it certainly
isn’t desired. To do so, he would need
to keep Wisconsin and Nevada, as well as winning Iowa, Colorado, and New
Hampshire.
There
is another path. The President could win
in Virginia and then lose one (or two) of the above states. However, the President is unlikely to lose
Ohio yet win Virginia. Luckily for
Obama, he holds a consistent lead in Ohio, and despite what each campaign is
saying, the President is not likely to lose there.
Final Result: Obama – 51.5
Romney –
48.0
Pennsylvania: After ignoring it all cycle, the Romney
campaign in recent days has decided to make a play for Pennsylvania. There have been arguments as to if this is a
show of strength or weakness for the campaign, but let’s be honest; this is
nothing but a hail mary. Mitt Romney
hasn’t led in a single Pennsylvania poll since mid-February. It’s certainly possible the Romney camp sees
something promising in their numbers, but it is more likely that they care more
about changing the narrative that it’s all about Ohio (where they are likely to
lose).
Final Result: Obama – 52.0
Romney –
47.4
Virginia: In my opinion the national popular vote will
look most like the popular vote in Virginia.
The two have been trending with each other all cycle, and like the
national polls, Virginia is very much a tossup right now. Polling in the state has been much more
sporadic than other states, with one recent poll showing Romney with a five
point lead and another showing a four point lead for Obama. The winner will likely be decided by who has
the better GOTV operations, and that currently appears to be President Obama.
Final Result: Obama – 50.5
Romney –
49.2
Wisconsin: No one really expected Wisconsin to be as
competitive as it has become this year.
That all changed when Mitt Romney selected Paul Ryan to be his running mate. Immediately after the selection, most polls
showed a dead heat. A couple even showed
Romney with the lead. However, the state
seems to have shifted back into the “lean Obama” category. Republicans in the state are still fired up
from the Walker recall, but Democrats also have a good organization. President Obama is likely to win Wisconsin
this year.
Final Result: Obama – 52.2
Romney –
47.4
Assuming
my predictions are correct, Barack Obama will be re-elected with 303 electoral
votes to Mitt Romney’s 235, as shown below.
While
it certainly isn’t the blowout many were predicting before the first debate, it
also can’t be characterized as “too close to call” or a “tossup”. People who are saying those things are either
purposefully misleading the public or they believe the polls are just flat-out
wrong.
Popular
Vote: You may have noticed that I have
not talked at all about who will win the popular vote. That is because, according to the system we
have in the United States for electing our Presidents, it just doesn’t matter. Yes, there is a distinct
possibility that we could have a repeat of 2000 in which President Obama wins
the Electoral College yet loses the popular vote, but the chance of that happening
is still relatively slim.
Final Result: Obama – 50.2
Romney – 49.1
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