Saturday, November 1, 2014

Senate Update - Iowa is Key

Lot of new polling from Iowa today, and basically all of it told us what we already knew: the race is a dead heat.  However, in every poll, Braley never led.  While all were within the margin of error, Ernst led by two in one poll, one point in two polls, and they were tied in the other.  This race will perhaps be the closest race on Tuesday night...

... Except perhaps Kansas.  A new poll showed Orman leading by only one point, and that matches up with his overall average against Roberts.  The polling in Kansas has jumped around a bit more, so there's the potential for either candidate to win by a larger-than-expected margin.  Still, this one could go into overtime.

In North Carolina, it seems as though Senator Kay Hagan may just hold on.  Two new polls out today had Hagan leading, though they were both within the margin of error.  The early vote numbers look good for her.  Still her chances haven't changed from 61%.

Finally, we have two other states of note.  Rasmussen polled the Alaska Senate race and found the Republican, Dan Sullivan, ahead by five points.  As we've noted before, Alaska is a tough state to poll, but nonetheless, Sullivan's chances increased to 58%.  And in New Hampshire, Senator Jeanne Shaheen got more good news with a poll showing her seven points against her challenger.  This is the second poll in as many days to show her lead in the high single digits, indicating that while the race may be close, she is clearly ahead. Shaheen now has an 80% chance of winning.

Overall, though, the Senate picture is completely unchanged.  Republicans still have a 69.8% chance of retaking the upper chamber.  At this point, no news is good news for Republicans.

No comments:

Post a Comment