Senator Cruz’s path to the Republican nomination is looking
smaller and smaller as we speed toward the first votes. When I wrote about how Trump could win the nomination, Cruz was leading nearly all the polls in Iowa and beginning to slowly
climb in New Hampshire. However, a lot
has changed since then.
First and foremost, Trump recognized the threat Cruz
represented and moved to halt his momentum.
According to the most recent polls, Trump is now projected to win Iowa,
a result that would surely diminish Ted Cruz’s chances of being the Republican
nominee. So how does Senator Cruz win?
His chances hinge on Iowa.
Ted Cruz pretty much must win Iowa in order to go on to win the
nomination. A close second probably
won’t do unless no other candidate comes close; then, it will likely be seen as
a two-man race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.
Turnout among evangelical voters and new voters is essential
for Cruz. He needs the former to come
out in droves and the latter to stay home.
Furthermore, Cruz needs to hope that supporters of other candidates that
share his social conservative support will instead decide to caucus for
him. These candidates include Rick
Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Ben Carson.
Collectively, those three candidates make up about 12.4% of the polling
average in Iowa. If they consolidated
around Cruz, he would win in a landslide.
After winning Iowa, Cruz will need to grow his support in
New Hampshire to collect at least 20% of the vote there. It may not be enough to win, but it would
likely be enough to create a story that he is gaining momentum and has
relatively strong support, even in a more moderate and secular state such as
New Hampshire.
From there, the voting will turn to South Carolina, where
Trump is currently leading the field and where Sen. Cruz is in second. Trump’s standing would likely diminish after
losing in Iowa, and Cruz should hope that his chief social conservative rivals
drop out by this point. Carson,
Huckabee, and Santorum make up about 11% of South Carolina’s polling
average. If the majority of those voters
moved to Cruz, he will have a strong shot of winning the state, particularly if
no establishment candidate can claim victory in New Hampshire.
Victories in Iowa and South Carolina, along with a split
decision in New Hampshire will fuel Cruz for the later states. Ted Cruz will be strongly positioned for wins
in the so-called “SEC primary” on March first.
These primaries include those in many southern states such as Alabama,
Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia, and Cruz’s home state,
Texas.
Importantly, all but one of these states (Virginia) has a
threshold a candidate must reach in order to win delegates. In some the threshold is 15% and others it is
20%. This means that a candidate like
Ben Carson or even Marco Rubio could receive zero delegates if they cannot
reach the threshold. That is good news
for Cruz (and Trump) who are the only two candidates currently breaking those
thresholds.
Like with the scenario for a Trump win, the nomination will
likely be a long and drawn out process, possibly leading all the way to the GOP
convention. Cruz would need to rack up a majority of the
delegates by the SEC primary in order to show that he has the momentum and
claim the title of eventual nominee.
His problem, however, is that he is just as despised among
the Republican establishment as Donald Trump.
Therefore, it is unlikely that all of the establishment candidates such
as Rubio or Bush will drop out of the race anytime soon. In order for Cruz to win the nomination, he
will need to rack up his delegate count in the more conservative southern
states and the ‘bible-belt’ and either hope that breaks 50% or receive a clear
plurality by the convention.
As I mentioned at the outset, Cruz’s chances have diminished
since two weeks ago. While he still has
plenty of money and time, he is faced with the possibility that several
candidates will not drop out soon after the first couple primaries, and the nomination
will therefore take months to lock up.
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