Monday, September 22, 2014

Senate Update - 22 September

The past few days have been relatively dry with respect to polling.  Since the 18th, when Battleground270 first released the updated senate model, there have been no new polls until today.  And even today there were only three new polls: one in North Carolina and two in Michigan.  

The North Carolina poll put Senator Hagan up by a relatively small 2% against her challenger Thom Tillis.  However, it was a Republican poll, and one that gave her a lead nonetheless.  Hagan's chance of winning rose from 67% to 71% based on this.  

The two polls out of Michigan put the Democrat, Peters, up by three and five points against Land.  Taken together, these two polls put Peters about a point less than his prior poll average.  However, when included with all of the other polls of the race (and there have been many), his overall average lead doesn't change significantly.  Further, Peters is helped in the model by the fact that Michigan is historically a Democratic-leaning state.  The model keeps his chances of winning at 88% .

Overall, not much has changed.  Republicans are still slightly favored to win the Senate (51.9%), but that number is down from Thursday's 52.8% chance.  Still, we are talking probability here.  Neither side is truly a favorite to win the Senate.  At this point, it's still anyone's game.

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