Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Senate Update - 30 September

Democrats finally got a polling boost today with three separate polls showing Democratic candidates in a better position than was previously thought.  In New Hampshire, ARG, which had previously found Jeanne Shaheen leading Scott Brown by only five points, released a poll giving her a ten point lead.  Shaheen now has a whopping 94% chance of re-election.

Likewise, Civitas, a Republican polling company, found North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan leading her Republican opponent by seven points.  This was a six point increase since the last time Civitas polled the race.  Hagan's chances of victory rose from 62% to 71%.

And finally, it appears as though Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu is within spitting distance of her Republican opponent, Rep. Bill Cassidy.  PPP today released a poll showing Cassidy with a three point lead in a head to head matchup.  That is roughly in line with most other polls that have been released lately on the race.  The model now puts Cassidy at an 80% favorite, down from 84% yesterday.  

All of this adds up to a sizable shift towards the Democrats.  Since yesterday, the GOP's chances of winning the Senate are now about 4% less.  Still, Republicans have the advantage with a 59.8% probability of winning control of the Senate.

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