Democrats finally got a polling boost today with three separate polls showing Democratic candidates in a better position than was previously thought. In New Hampshire, ARG, which had previously found Jeanne Shaheen leading Scott Brown by only five points, released a poll giving her a ten point lead. Shaheen now has a whopping 94% chance of re-election.
Likewise, Civitas, a Republican polling company, found North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan leading her Republican opponent by seven points. This was a six point increase since the last time Civitas polled the race. Hagan's chances of victory rose from 62% to 71%.
And finally, it appears as though Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu is within spitting distance of her Republican opponent, Rep. Bill Cassidy. PPP today released a poll showing Cassidy with a three point lead in a head to head matchup. That is roughly in line with most other polls that have been released lately on the race. The model now puts Cassidy at an 80% favorite, down from 84% yesterday.
All of this adds up to a sizable shift towards the Democrats. Since yesterday, the GOP's chances of winning the Senate are now about 4% less. Still, Republicans have the advantage with a 59.8% probability of winning control of the Senate.