Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Senate Update - 1 October

Yesterday, I tweeted that the most helpful new polls to get would be from CO, IA, GA, and KS.  Some of these we haven't heard from in awhile, while others are just too close to call right now.  

Well today, we got new polls from both Colorado and Kansas, but they don't really tell us anything new (I want more!).  What they do tell us is that the races in each of those states are relatively stable.  A Rasmussen Reports poll put Republican Cory Gardner up by 1% in Colorado over the Democratic incumbent, Mark Udall.  The most recent Rasmussen poll from Colorado had Udall up by two, so there may be a small shift towards Gardner over the past two weeks.  However, it is important to note that both of those polls were also within the margin of error.  Essentially, this race is probably tied.

In Kansas, Greg Orman got great news from two fronts today.  First, a Kansas Supreme Court ruled that Democrats would not have to have a candidate on the ballot in November. This will likely benefit Orman, the independent, as he will now probably get the lions share of any votes that would have gone to the Democrat.  

Further, a USA Today/Suffolk poll found Orman maintaining a five point lead against Republican Senator Pat Roberts.  Republicans are beginning to pour a lot of time and resources into the state, so it will be interesting to see if Roberts' numbers begin to move back up.  At the moment, attacks against Orman have done little to damage him, but there is still a month left of campaigning, and it is likely to turn ugly.

Despite these developments, the race for the Senate has remained extremely stable.  The GOP still has a 59.9% of winning the Senate, up only 0.1% from yesterday.

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