Sunday, October 19, 2014

Gubernatorial Update - Connecticut Is All Over the Map

There was only one new poll released today with respect to the gubernatorial elections in November, and that came from Rasmussen Reports.  The firm surveyed Connecticut voters and found the Republican, Tom Foley, leading the incumbent Governor Dan Malloy by seven points.  

Polls in this state have been all over the place, with PPP finding just a couple weeks ago that Malloy was up by six.  The two polls are clearly incongruent and cannot both be right. Therefore, with the average having Foley up by 0.2%, according to RealClearPolitics, and adding in state fundamentals, Foley now has a 45% chance of winning, up from a 36% chance yesterday.  

Overall, Republicans are now more likely to only lose one seat, rather than the two they were most likely to lose yesterday.  the shift is small, but Democrats need every bit they can get.

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