Monday, October 6, 2014

Senate Update - 6 October

Unfortunately, there were relatively few Senate polls out today.  That was expected given the plethora of polls released yesterday.  Though the overall forecast remained relatively the same (the GOP has a 55.6% chance of winning control of the Senate), both parties got good news today, for different reasons.  

In Iowa, the GOP got a major boost with two new polls showing Ernst with a lead over Braley.  The first was only "technically" a lead, with Ernst up 0.3% over Braley.  However, the second (which could probably be considered an outlier, but we still include it) had Ernst up by nine points.  The poll finding the tie is likely to be closer to the actual result of the race, and indeed, we currently have Ernst leading by about 2.5%, not 9%.  Still, Democrats should begin to worry that Iowa is slipping away from them, as they now only have a 37% chance of winning.

To serve as good news for the Democrats, SurveyUSA published a poll of Kentucky showing Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes leading Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell by two points.  The lead is obviously within the margin of error, but it seems the race may be closer than we previously thought.  Additionally, despite the fact that we don't include campaign-sponsored polls in the forecast, a poll for the Grimes campaign found her up by the same margin last week.  Still, despite the recent poll, McConnell still has a 77% chance of winning, down from 87% yesterday.

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