Thursday, October 9, 2014

Senate Update - 9 October

Contrary to yesterday, only one new poll came out today, and it was a CNN poll of Alaska. The poll found Dan Sullivan leading the Democratic incumbent, Mark Begich, by six points. The model is becoming more sure of Sullivan's chances of victory, as Begich hasn't led in a single poll for the past month.  Still Alaska is known for its toughness to poll correctly, so there is still some uncertainty in the model.  Sullivan now has a 79% chance of winning, up from 74% yesterday.

That leaves the GOP with a slightly improved outlook today, at 55% even.  If you would like to see how that result compares to other popular Senate forecasters, click here.

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