Thursday, October 2, 2014

Senate Update - 2 October

Not a whole lot to update today.  Only a couple new polls out, both from states that are already leaning Democratic.  Thus, the model didn't change much since yesterday. Republicans still have a 59.8% chance of taking control of the Senate in 2015.  

The first poll was from New England College showing Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen tied with her opponent, Scott Brown.  However, only two weeks ago, the same polling agency found Shaheen ahead by eleven.  As others have pointed out, there certainly wasn't an eleven point swing in just two weeks, especially when there has been no significant news or gaffes from either side.  More likely, the race is somewhere in between, which is where we had it anyway.  Still Shaheen's chances dropped to 75%.

The other poll today was also likely an outlier.  Mitchell Research gave Michigan Rep. Gary Peters a thirteen point lead against his rival, Terri Lynn Rand.  Other surveys have shown the race a bit tighter, but it is clear that Peters certainly has a strong advantage in the state. His chances of winning are now at 97%.

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