Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Senate Update - 7 October

The Republicans saw an incremental gain in their chances to control the Senate today.  They now stand a 56.1% chance of winning, and increase of 0.5% since yesterday.  Baby steps, but it did manage to reverse the over week-long decline in their standing.  

Only two notable polls were made available today.  The first, from Georgia, showed David Perdue still maintaining his small but stubborn lead.  The poll had him up 48-45 against Nunn.  Because this is now the fourth poll in a row to show Perdue up by about that same margin, the model is beginning to put more weight into the idea that his lead is, indeed, what the polls are telling us.  That gives him a 70% chance of winning on November 4th, up from 68% yesterday.

Similarly, yet another poll (SurveyUSA) found Kansas Republican Senator Pat Roberts down by five points to his independent challenger, Greg Orman.  Like in Georgia, this result marks a very stable set of polls showing Orman with a lead of 5 or 6 points.  However, unlike in Georgia, Orman's chance of winning remains the same, at 68%.  

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