Saturday, October 25, 2014

Senate Update - Georgia Georgia Georgia

Yesterday, we received a total of three new polls out of Georgia.  While they all showed that the race is still a close one in the state, they each differed on who had the lead.  The first, from CNN, showed the Democrat, Michelle Nunn, with a three point advantage.  Then, the Atlanta Journal Constitution's poll of the state was released and found David Perdue leading Nunn by two points.  The final poll, released last night, showed the race as a tie.  

The model takes the three polls into account equally, but it has become clear the past couple days that Michelle Nunn is ahead, if only by a small margin.  Her bigger problem is that she is not clearing 50%, which she needs in order to avoid a runoff.  Still her chance of leading on election day is now 53%, up slightly from yesterday at 52%.

Another Democrat received good news yesterday with a new poll showing Senator Jeanne Shaheen leading by three points.  Though her lead has been small, it has been remarkably consistent.  That affects the model in that it is more confident that she is actually ahead. Therefore, her chances rose from 62% to 64%.  

Finally, a new poll from Colorado showed Mark Udall trailing Republican Cory Gardner by five points.  However, this is slightly less than six point deficit Udall saw in the prior poll. Additionally, some of the older polls have become less relevant, and Udall's chances have risen to 30% from 25%.

Overall, the GOP's chances of winning a majority are still moderately strong, at 68.3%, but that is down from 69.4% yesterday.  This marks the first time in the last ten days that the party's chances have decreased rather than increased (or stayed the same).  Stay tuned to see if this is just a fluke or if it is more of a trend.

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