Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Senate Update - 21 October

For the most part, Republicans continue to get good news when it comes to the fate of their Senate candidates.  Today (finally) brought multiple polls from swing states such as Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Colorado, North Carolina, and Louisiana.

Most of the polls were favorable to Republicans.  In Arkansas, the survey found Tom Cotton with a whopping 8 point lead.  While this is a larger lead than we've seen and is likely an outlier, it certainly points to evidence that Cotton's lead is certainly outside the margin of error.  Pryor's chances of re-election are now only 14%.  

Monmouth University released two polls today of Colorado and Kansas.  The Kansas poll found Independent candidate Greg Orman tied with Republican Senator Pat Roberts.  They also found Colorado's Cory Gardner leading Mark Udall by one point.  

PPP also surveyed the Colorado race and found Senator Udall down by three points.  Udall hasn't led in a poll since late September, but it seems that he has cut into a bit of Gardner's former lead.  Still his chances of winning are only 33%.

The glimmer of good news for Democrats today came from a SurveyUSA poll which found North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan leading Republican Thom Tillis by three points.  This is the same margin SurveyUSA found last week, which would indicate that the race is at least holding steady.  Hagan's chances remain at 60%.

Overall, the GOP is continuing its march to winning a majority in the Senate.  Their chances are now at 67.6%, up 1.3% over yesterday.

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