Sunday, October 26, 2014

Gubernatorial Update - 26 October

We haven't updated our gubernatorial forecast in a few days, but in reality, not much has changed.  There have been many polls out of Georgia, Colorado, Kansas, and Illinois, but most of them haven't moved the needles for their prospective candidates much.  Despite getting some good polling news on Friday, Georgia's Jason Carter received some more polls showing he was still trailing incumbent Governor Nathan Deal.  The race has tightened slightly, but Deal still has a 62% chance of winning.

In Colorado, it appears as if Governor John Hickenlooper is doing better than his Democratic counterpart, Mark Udall.  He consistently polls about three to four points better against his opponent than does Udall, and that will likely make the difference in the race for Governor.  Hickenlooper's chances have increased to 55% from 50%.

In Kansas, the race is still close, but two new polls from Rasmussen Reports and NBC/Marist show the Democrat, Paul Davis, with a seven and one point lead, respectively. The race appears to be leaning in Davis' direction, but Kansas is still a very red state, and that means Davis' probability of a win is still only 49%.

Finally, two fresh polls from Illinois show the Republican challenger, Bruce Rauner, leading Governor Pat Quinn by one and two points.  In a way, Illinois is the exact opposite as Kansas.  Pat Quinn is a Democratic Governor who is deeply unpopular in his state.  The challenger is leading slightly in the polls, but the outcome will be uncertain because of the deep tint of the state.  Still Quinn has a 47% chance of victory.  He faced longer odds in 2010 and still came out on top.  We'll see where the final week of the campaign takes this race.

Overall, the Democrats are still expected to have the best chance of gaining one seat from their current 21 seats.  

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