Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Gubernatorial Update - Movement Towards the GOP

Like in the Senate, we finally got some new polling for Gubernatorial races today.  We'll start with the two from Michigan.

Governor Snyder is in a better position today than when this forecast launched last week. He now has a 71% chance of winning, up from 66% before the two new polls came out. Those polls showed him with a two and eight point lead.  It's likely his actual lead is somewhere in between, but either way, Schauer's path to victory is getting much narrower.  

As in the Senate, PPP also released a poll showing Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper tied with Bob Beauprez, his Republican opponent.  This race is still very much a tossup, but our model now has Beauprez leading, if only slightly.  The Republican's chances now stand at 52%.

Finally, we have a new poll in Arizona, which has been sparsely polled, probably due to its lack of Senate race this year.  The Republican, Doug Ducey, has a five point lead in PPP's poll.  The most recent poll before this one was a month ago, and it showed Ducey with an eleven point lead, so most of the weight was put on this most recent one.  Ducey now has a 95% chance of winning.  

Overall, Democrats are still favored to pick up at least one seat, and possibly two.  There are still too many tossup races to narrow down where things will fall.

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