Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Gubernatorial Update - Still Many Tossups

Yesterday, YouGov blessed us with polling from all of the major gubernatorial races.  While some polls helped add some confidence to our model about certain races (such as Rhode Island, Arkansas, and Hawaii), others just added to the confusion.

There are still seven states which could be described as 'tossups' and many more which are on the edge.  The tossup states are Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, and Wisconsin.  Of those, the model is most sure about Colorado and Illinois, giving the Democratic incumbents a 58% and 57% chance of victory.  The others are all between five percent of one another.  

Democrats are now about equally likely to win 22 and 23 seats, with the latter being slightly more likely.  Still, their chances of getting to at least 25 seats are only about 10.7%, about the same chance Democrats have to come away with exactly 51 seats in the Senate.

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