Friday, October 3, 2014

Senate Update - 3 October

This cycle, there have been relatively few "game changers" in the individual races for the Senate.  Sure, Kansas has definitely thrown the political world (and Republicans) a curveball with the Democrat dropping out of the race and the Independent candidate surging, but there have been no disqualifying gaffes that could doom a candidate.

Until possibly now.  Politico obtained a transcript from a 2005 deposition in which the Republican candidate David Perdue was essentially bragging about how most of his career had been spent outsourcing.  To understand how damaging this could be, we can look at a recent polls which show American voters greatly dislike outsourcing and the effects they perceive it has on the American economy.

The Democratic candidate Michelle Nunn will no doubt attempt to use this line of attack against her opponent, and it could be quite effective.  Coincidentally, a new poll of Georgia was also released today.  Perdue is still leading Nunn by four points.  However, this poll was taken before the news broke about Perdue's comments.  The full effect of his comments likely won't show up in polls for at least another week.

We also got more information today on the state of the races in Kansas and Michigan.  In the latter, it seems as the though the Democrat has cemented his lead with a new poll showing him having a nine point lead against his Republican challenger.  This came a day after a poll had shown Peters up by thirteen.  Peters now has a 98% chance of winning in November.

Finally, in Kansas, Gravis Marketing released a new poll showing Independent candidate Greg Orman holding a solid seven point lead against his the Republican incumbent. However, despite his seemingly stable lead in the race, the model still only gives Orman a 68% chance of victory.  This is mostly due to the fact that Kansas is a deep red state and there are still quite a few undecided voters.

Overall, despite a lot of news and polls out today, the race only shifted about a point in the Democrats' direction.  Republicans still have a 57.8% chance of winning in November.  

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