Sunday, October 19, 2014

Senate Update - 19 October

This update was supposed to come two days ago, but I've been incredibly busy this weekend creating the new Battleground270 Governor's Forecast, which launched last night.  
Despite all that, there actually was some fairly important news out of Kentucky on Friday. Rasmussen Reports polled the race and found Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leading Grimes by eight point.  This represents the largest lead he's seen yet, and a huge reversal from a poll just last week showing Grimes up by two points.  

Now, it is very unlikely that the race has shifted by ten points in just a week's time (despite Grimes' refusal to answer for whom she voted).  Instead, it was likely the SurveyUSA poll showing Grimes in the lead was an outlier, and the race was closer to three or four points in McConnell's favor.  McConnell's chance of re-election has risen to 75%.

One other poll out Friday was of the Senate race in Iowa.  Public Policy Polling found Bruce Braley with a one point lead over Ernst.  That now means Braley and Georgia Democrat Michelle Nunn have the same chance of winning in a couple weeks, at 43%.

Overall, McConnell's huge gains have pushed the GOP's chances to winning control of the Senate to 63.3%, up from 61.4% before Friday's polls.  Now, if we could just get some new polls this weekend...

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