Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Senate Update - 24 September

Despite a few new polls today, there is relatively little shift in the model's projections, at least as far as the Senate as-a-whole is concerned.  Today saw no increase in either party's chances of taking the Senate.  Even individual Senate races were not affected greatly by the polls released, mostly because they were relatively in line with expectations.  

The largest "swing" was in Arkansas' race.  Yesterday, we discussed how a poll showing Tom Cotton with a six point lead was perhaps showing a trend away from the Democratic incumbent.  However, a poll released today by USA Today/Suffolk showed Pryor up by two against Cotton.  We are now essentially back to where we started, with Pryor having a 30% chance of survival.

One other poll of note: New England College found New Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen up by seven points against her rival, Scott Brown.  This would be good news except for the fact that their latest poll showed Shaheen up by eleven points.  Therefore, it appears the gap between the Senator and her GOP opponent is indeed shrinking.  However, Senator Shaheen's chances are still high with 83%, dropping from 88% yesterday.

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